Nov 30, Two Key Market Drivers – Euro & Dollar In Play!
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
Good Morning, fellow traders. The U.S. dollar just activated the market after the release of economic events. As we spoke about in our previous update Nov. 29 – Morning Brief, the fundamentals were supposed to play their roles and they did. Today I'm expecting another volatile day for this same reason.
Top Economic Events Today
Eurozone – EUR
German Retail Sales m/m – At 7:00 (GMT), the Destatis will be releasing the German retail sales figures. The figure is forecast to be 0.3% well below last month's figure of 0.5%.
CPI Flash Estimate y/y – This is today's more important figure. This has the potential to bring happiness to Euro bulls as inflation is expected to rise to 1.6% from 1.4%. Inflation is a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. A greater value is considered good for currency.
U.S. Dollar – USD
Unemployment Claims – At 13:30 (GMT), the Department of Labor will release the jobless claims report with a forecast of 241K which is slightly higher than the previous figure of 239K. This kind of change usually goes unresponded. Investor's don't even bother to trade such a difference, especially for the weekly figures.
However, the Chicago PMI is due at 14:45 (GMT) and it could cause some movement in the dollar.
Top Trade Setups To Watch Today
EUR/USD – Consolidation Phase After EMA Retest
Despite the surprisingly good figures from the United States, the Euro hasn't moved much against the dollar. Perhaps, the technical side is stronger than fundamentals. On the 4 – hour Chart, the EUR/USD plunged again to retest the 50- periods moving average. The candles closing above EMA are giving more strength to $1.1835.
EUR/USD – 4 – Hour Chart – EMA Support
Let's recall the Fibonacci levels which we applied yesterday. The EUR/USD is still consolidating above the 50% Fibonacci of $1.1835. Breakage below this can lead the pair towards the 61.8% Fibo level of $1.1800. Whereas, the Stochastic and RSI are still managing to break out of the oversold region.
EUR/USD – Key Trading Levels
Key Trading Level: 1.1849
EUR/USD Trading Plan
I'm looking to stay bullish above 1.1835 with a stop below $1.1790 and a take profit of $1.1900.
USD/JPY – Stronger Dollar Dragging The Pair
The strength in the dollar initiated dramatic buying in the USD/JPY. Thanks to better than expected Pending Home Sales which rose 3.5 percent to 109.3 in October from a downward revised figure of 105.6 in September.
On the USD/JPY technical chart, the RSI and Stochastics are holding in the overbought zone. The pair just crossed above 50 – periods EMA, which is signaling that bulls may enter the market.
USD/JPY – 4 – Hour Chart – Fibonacci
The pair is right below the 61.8% Fibo level at $112.100. Below this, sellers may take a chance to gain few pips.
USD/JPY – Key Trading Levels
Key Trading Level: 111.8
USD/JPY Trading Plan
I'm going to keep a closer eye on $112.110. Selling is preferred below this level with a stop loss above $112.350 and take profit at $111.550. Above $112.115, the pair is likely to go for $112.450 and $112.650. That's it for now but read our Forex Signals Brief for Nov. 30 to gain more insight into our Forex Trading Signals. Good luck and trade with care!