What Are the Odds of Oil Reaching $80 This Year?
I am trying to weigh the odds of Oil prices reaching $80. Is it possible this year?
Yesterday, I came across a question in a social platform which weighs odds of future events happening one way or the other. The question was “Will Oil reach $80 sometime this year?”. You identify and weigh the pros and cons and you come up with the odds. But before answering that question there, I think I’m going to give it a try here first.
The red moving average has been broken
Pros
- World economy is improving with more pace
- OPEC is keeping the quotas
- $80 is not that far
- The trend is bullish
Cons
- $80 is quite far
- The trade war is beginning with tariffs
- Real war is just around the corner in the middle east
So, how do we weigh these factors?
Pros
- Real, it’s been going on for some time
- Real, OPEC will push quotas further
- Real, $80 is not far, it’s reachable
Cons
- Real, $80 is a bit far
- Partially real, trade war has begun but we don’t know to what extent it will stretch. Will it hurt the global economy, or will it give it a push? It’s too early to tell and things are very blurry.
- NATO launched a few missiles
- The trend is bullish, isn’t it?
As you can see the odds of Oil reaching $80 are 50/50. I don’t have a programme to weigh the odds correctly, but that’s the idea. The chances of Oil reaching $80 are almost the same as not reaching that level. The 100 SMA (green) is likely to be a big obstacle, but if the momentum is strong, then it can be overcome.
Conclusion – I give it 60% chance that Oil prices reach $80 this year.
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