The Bank of Canada (BOC) released the statement and the interest rate decision a while ago and USD/CAD traders got excited for a minute. No one was expecting a rate hike, so the interest was in the statement.

The BOC statement was positive as anticipated with a revision higher for growth for 2019. But, there was a comment saying that the BOC will be cautious regarding future rate hikes.

That comment sent USD/CAD 80 pips higher as you can see from the H4 chart below. This forex pair reached the 50 SMA (yellow) but stopped right there. The area around 1.2620-30 is where this moving average comes at the moment and that area is a strong resistance level as well.

The 50 SMA and the resistance level are working together

So, it looks like a good place for sellers. The trend is bearish, so this latest move looks more like a retrace. The retrace seems complete now since the stochastic indicator is overbought. This makes four technical indicators pointing down in this pair.

We missed the chance on that jump, but USD/CAD is still not that far from it. So, I’m watching this pair to see if the buyers manage to push a little higher again so we could open a sell forex signal, close to the 50 SMA. The US crude Oil inventories took a dip so, that should be positive for the CAD since Canada is a major Oil exporter.