Will the USD reverse higher at some point?

June USD Index futures are once again on the bear, falling beneath the 97.000 level. Rates have been slammed this week as currency players priced in Jerome Powell’s pledge to “preserve the U.S. economic expansion.” Given the current buzz over possibly two rate cuts in 2019, the USD Index has given back a significant portion of this year’s gains.

As we near the halfway point of 2019, it will become increasingly useful to place the first six months of action into context. So far, the Greenback is in an uptrend against the majors. U.S. economic performance, trade war fallout, and Brexit uncertainty are primary reasons why.

USD Index Futures Are On The Bear

Monday was an especially brutal open to the trading week for June USD Index futures. Rates plunged beneath daily support and have yet to recover.

June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

Here are two topside resistance levels to watch as the session unfolds:

  • Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, 97.435
  • Resistance(2): Daily SMA, 97.515

Overview: It has been all downhill for the USD Index since the late-May test above the 98.000 handle. At this point, the short-term trend is down and 96.500 is the next psyche level up for scrutiny.

So, is the long-term uptrend in the USD Index going to remain valid until January 1, 2020? Only time will give us the answer. However, with issues such as FED policy, Brexit, and the U.S./China trade war likely being decided by then, the Greenback is in a position to weaken as the year wears on.

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