Weak Housing Data Still Weighing on the AUD
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read
With the RBA this week cutting official interest rates, there is now some hope that the move might help stimulate a lagging property market.
Today we saw another weak release for the housing sector with investment falling away once again.
- Investment Lending -2.2% (vs. expected 1.0%, prior -2.7%)
- Owner-occupied +1.0% (vs. expected 0.0%, prior -3.4%)
With the property cycle well and truly in a downtrend, a rate cut would help bolster demand. However, lending restrictions that have only recently been eased are not likely to be shown in this data as it is for April. The macroprudential measures that have been in place for a number of years now that targeted investment lending have been eased and that should hopefully see these numbers turn around.
So why is this important?
Property makes up a huge portion of Australia’s GDP. It is a sector that includes many different areas with construction being a big employer. A weak sector really hurts employment and also trickles down to even state level taxes.
So this is certainly a fundamental factor worth watching.
The AUD/USD has been pushing higher since the RBA release but has not been able to crack the 0.7000 level which is now firm resistance.
It also appears that the Aussie is making a bit of a double top here with a lower high in place on the second retest of resistance.
That could well mean there is some more downside ahead. However, there is the looming US jobs data today that will have a big say on what exactly comes of the AUD/USD later today.
The FOMC is turning dovish so a weak jobs number could well mean a rate cut will be on the cards and the USD should theoretically continue to weaken.