The UK is heading out of the EU with no Brexit deal as all signs show. Companies operating in the country stocked up in Q1 in anticipation of this, which helped improve the economic figures. But come Q2 and the numbers turned negative, with services, manufacturing and construction in contraction. In Q2 the UK GDP shrank which means that the broader economy also contracted in Q2.

But earnings, employment and inflation are holding up really well as this week’s data has shown. Employment grew on Monday despite an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, earnings jumped to 3.7% YoY in June as Tuesday’s report showed, while yesterday inflation ticked higher as well.

Today we will get to see retail sales for July. Retail sales have been holding up well too apart from May, despite the fall in the GBP and the problems in the rest of the economy. They are expected to turn negative and decline by 0.3%, but the report last month was also expected to show a 0.3% decline in June, while sales increased by 1.0%. So, we might get another surprise today which would be the fourth one this week. But, that’s not going to turn the GBP bullish anyway.