Forex Signals Brief for Oct 10: US CPI Remains the Key
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
There is one major data point ahead of the next FOMC meeting that we are all waiting on and that will be released today.
Of course, I’m talking about US CPI and a soft reading could be the very news the FOMC doves have been hoping for.
We already saw a weak PPI number and now the attention will be firmly on whether or not CPI is on the right track. If it misses the expectation of 0.2% MoM then there could be a sharp increase in the odds of a further rate cut.
Interestingly though, annual CPI is looking at 2.4%, which by most metrics around the world is actually very healthy. To add to that, with strong employment, then on the surface, the hawks do have a pretty good case.
Elsewhere, we look the UK earlier today as we get GDP, which will impact the GBP/USD. GDP for both the month and the quarter is sitting perilously close to being negative, which as we know, is one step closer to a technical recession. That will be something that will generate a fair few negative headlines, so keep an eye on that print.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had a strong session with 4 wins from 5 signals for the second straight day in a row.
EUR/USD – Active Signal
The downtrend in EUR/USD has remained in-tact for the time being and as such we are short here looking for it to hold. The best play is to keep pushing this edge until it breaks.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD has bounced back above the $1500 level but we will need to pay close attention to it on the back of CPI today. We are still trading around that level but will need to be prepared for some sharp moves on this update today.
BTC has broken out of the little wedge/triangle pattern that we’ve been watching, but it wasn’t in the direction we probably hoped for.
Given that it has broken higher it has run into resistance at the $8,500 level. That was always going to be a first stopping point and we have seen the sellers are strong in this region.
A downside break of $7,800 would have been better as it was with the trend and there was room to fall.
That said, if this price holds, then I would expect a push higher into $9,000.