China’s Economy to Grow at Under 6% in Next Five Years: Policy Adviser to PBOC - Forex News by FX Leaders
China's Economy to Grow at Under 6% in Next Five Years: Policy Adviser to PBOC

China’s Economy to Grow at Under 6% in Next Five Years: Policy Adviser to PBOC

Posted Monday, December 9, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 1 min read

Estimates by a policy adviser to the PBOC suggest that the Chinese economy could grow at under 6% over the next five years. These comments were made by Liu Shijin, a policy adviser to PBOC, while addressing a conference at Beijing on Saturday.

Liu has forecast that China’s economic growth could range between 5% and 6% during 2020-25. PBOC already has a loose monetary policy in place presently, and any further easing of the monetary policy in order to stimulate economic growth could cause more harm than good to China, he has warned.

In Q3, China’s GDP had declined to 6% YoY – the weakest level in nearly 30 years and the lowest level as per the government’s range for annual GDP, 6-6.5%. The trade war with the US has caused not only a slowdown in exports, the main contributor to its economic growth, but has also dampened domestic demand, driving additional weakness in the economy of late.

Liu’s cautious comments on further easing in monetary policy appear to echo PBOC Governor Yi Gang’s views. Last week, Yi had commented that the PBOC will not consider rolling out QE measures and will continue to maintain a prudent approach towards monetary policy.

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About the author

Arslan Butt // Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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