EUR/CHF has been bearish since around the middle of December, after the UK elections were held and the Phase One deal between US and China was agreed upon. Those events improved the sentiment in financial markets, especially the partial deal which sent safe havens lower and EUR/CHF higher.

But, the optimism faded and towards the end of December traders decided to lean on safe havens, just in case. They were right, because the sentiment turned quite negative once the new year arrived, after US killed Iran’s Solemani and Iran attacked some US bases in Iraq.

So, the trend has been bearish for about a month and during this time the 50 SMA has been pushing the price lower, ending the pullbacks higher. Today we are seeing another retrace higher, with the sentiment improving somewhat and USD/JPY climbing higher as well. I am thinking of opening a sell trade, but only once the 50 SMA (yellow) catches up with the price. EUR/CHF would be overbought by then.