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UK GDP Flatlines in January and Should Fall Into Contraction in Later Months

The UK economy slowed down considerably last year and in the last few months it fell into contraction, as the uncertainty surrounding Brexit kept investors out. But, we saw a rebound in December, after the elections in the UK, which produced a clear winner, Bojo, and set the direction for the UK out of EU. So, the sentiment improved as uncertainty declined and the economy expanded by 0.3% in December; but it seems like it is turning back down now. Below is the UK GDP report.

  • UK January GDP 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • January stood at +0.3%
  • GDP 0.0% vs +0.1% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior +0.1%

The post-election bounce doesn’t appear to be as great as expected but this hardly matters at this stage, particularly after the BOE action today. It is all about post-virus economic conditions now and the UK budget announcement later today.

There’s also manufacturing activity data released at the same time are as per below:
  • Manufacturing production +0.2% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.3%
  • Manufacturing production -3.6% vs -3.5% y/y expected
  • Prior -2.5%
  • Industrial production -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.1%
  • Industrial production -2.9% vs -2.6% y/y expected
  • Prior -1.8%
  • Construction output -0.8% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.4%
  • Construction output +1.6% vs +2.4% y/y expected
  • Prior +5.0%
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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