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Forex Signals Brief for May 6: A First Look at US Jobs

US Market Wrap

Markets pushed higher yesterday, led by more positive sentiment surrounding the reopening of the US economy.

There were a number of Fed speakers that were getting rolled out across the county and by enlarge they were upbeat on how the economy would recover. There appears to be a growing chorus of those wanting the economy reopened including President Trump, which has been translating into green days in the SPX.

At the same time, the other market mover yesterday was WTI, which is now on track to show some signs of recovery with the price of oil surging by over 20%. This is a response to production showing signs of slowing and demand perhaps increasing as the economy reopens. 

 

The Data Agenda

There are a number of data points coming out of both the UK and US that will be well worth watching today.

First, in the UK, we will have construction PMI which comes on the back of a number of PMI releases yesterday, so again this will likely be the market mover for the GBP/USD. Then in Europe, we have some second-tier numbers including retail sales and German factory orders and services PMI, so they do have the potential to move the EUR/USD.

But the main event for me will be later when we get the US ADP jobs report which is a precursor to Friday’s non-farm payroll number. This is expected to be ugly and show a contraction of -20 million jobs. Markets might not tumble on the news though as I think we all know this is going to be a poor result.

Finally, we get WTI crude oil inventories, which will potentially show a slightly lower build. Clearly, production is slowing and that could help see oil keep regaining ground.

 

Forex Signal Update

The FX Leaders Team closed one signal in the green from two trades yesterday as we slowly build into the week.

 

Gold – Pending Signal

GOLD has regained some ground this week and is now back above the key $1700 level. That gives us the confidence to look for a long signal as the bulls are in control in the short-term.

Gold
Gold – 240min

 

SPX – Watching

The SPX can’t quite find its way back above the key 2,900 resistance level just yet. But importantly, we are seeing a series of higher lows. That with some positive sentiment around the economy reopening might be enough to keep the bulls in control.

SPX
SPX – 240min.

 

Cryptocurrency Update

The flag formation in BTC is starting to look more and more bullish, but as yet we haven’t seen a breakout. As I said yesterday, if either the $9,000 level or $8,500 break, we could be looking to go with that momentum.

Technically this is a bullish chart pattern and the halving is getting closer by the day.

BTC
BTC – 240min.
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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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