The decline in retail sales is over

Canadian Retail Sales Reverse in May

Posted Tuesday, July 21, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

Retail sales posted some major declines in Canada during March and April. In March we saw a 10% decline, but in April the decline came at -26.4%, which was revised lower today at -25.0%. Core sales also posted a major decline of 22% in April, but at least today’s report showed a reversal for May, as the economy started to reopen. Although, it missed expectations and year-on-year numbers are still negative. Below is the retail sales from Canada for May and the Chicago FED activity index for June:

Canadian Retail Sales, May 2020

  • Canada retail sales for May 18 .7% vs. 20.0% estimate. Year on year retail sales are down -18.4%
  • April retail sales came in at -26.4%, revised to -25.3%. In March the index fell by -9.9%. Year
  • Retail sales excluding autos at 10.6% vs. 11.9% estimate. Prior month was revised from -22.0% to -20.7%. Year on year retail sales ex auto’s are down -10.6%
  • Motor vehicle and Parts dealers showed a gain of 66.3% month on month. But it is down -39.3% year on year
  • Largest upside contributor on month was new car dealers category, +9.97%
  • Largest downside contributor was the supermarkets, -0.83%
  • Toronto retail sales grew by 8.0% month on month. Montréal grew by 32.0%. Vancouver grew by 14.4%

Chicago Fed national activity index for June 2020

  • Chicago Fed national activity index for June rose to 4.11. That is a record high going back to at least 2000
  • May was revised higher to 3.5 from 2.61
  • The gains come off of a record low reading in April of -17.89
  • The index was led by improvements in production and employment related indicators
  • 54 of 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions
  • 31 of 85 made negative contributions
The Fed national activity index is a composite of 85 indicators. A reading above 0 indicates growth. While a reading below 0 and indicates contraction.
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