Fibonacci Resistance In View For The USD/CHF

Posted Monday, September 7, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

September has brought a few bids to the laboring Greenback. Today has exemplified this trend, with the USD rallying vs the euro, British pound, and Canadian dollar. In addition, the USD/CHF is ticking higher, approaching a key level of Fibonacci resistance. At this point, it appears that some of the more skittish investors are snatching up USDs amid growing American political uncertainty.

With under 60 days until the 3 November 2020 U.S. presidential election, there is tremendous uncertainty facing the electorate. Below is a quick look at the odds and polls:

  • has Joe Biden as a slight favorite, priced at $0.59 per share to win. Trump is trading lower, priced at $0.44 per share. 
  • Leading offshore wagering sites have Biden moderately favored to win (-125). The betting has been relatively even, trending in the direction of Trump over the past month.
  • Real Clear Politics (RCP) polls have Biden ahead by 7.1 points nationally. However, the RCP battleground state polls are extremely tight. Key swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona are at or near the 3% margin of error.

In short, the U.S. presidential race is a toss-up. Pollsters are giving Biden a modest edge, but the data itself is wildly unreliable. Memories of 2016 are still fresh in everyone’s minds and the impact of widespread paper balloting is yet to be seen. At this point, American political uncertainty has never been greater.

As we have seen to open September, some investors are seeking shelter in the Greenback. Subsequently, the USD/CHF is on the march toward Fibonacci resistance.

Fibonacci Resistance In View For The USD/CHF

Last week was the first sustained bounce in the USD/CHF since March. Now, rates are grinding higher toward the 0.9200 handle.

USD/CHF, Weekly Chart

Here are two levels to watch for the Swissy this week:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Fibonacci Retracement, 0.9202
  • Support(1): Psyche Level, 0.9000

Bottom Line: If bids keep hitting the USD/CHF, a shorting opportunity will set up in the near future. Until elected, I’ll have sell orders in the queue from 0.9194. With an initial stop loss at 0.9221, this trade produces 25 pips on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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