The Trend Is Really Strong, When the 20 SMA Can’t Even Catch Up With the Price
Crude Oil continues the bullish momentum after OPEC's meeting
Crude Oil looked dead about a year ago, as US WTI headed in negative territory. But it has turned into the best trade of the year as stocks (particularly tech) continue to struggle. OPEC+ delivered an incredible boost to the market yesterday and the earlier timeline on vaccines is providing a one-two punch.
Today’s rally breaks the January 2020 high of $65.65. That came after the US assassinated Iranian general Qasem Soleimani and Iran retaliated by launching rocket attacks at US bases in Iraq. So now, Oil is trading at the highest ince 2019.
The next resistance level is the 2019 high of $60.60. Crude might be overdue for a pullback but if the market is tight, there’s nothing to trigger it. Oil is also so hated that spec positioning isn’t particularly long. In short, this is such a hated trade that I think it can continue to run if $60.60 breaks. The fact that the 20 SMA can’t catch up with the price also confirms the strength of the trend. In Brent Oil, the 2019 high is way up at $76 so there’s more room to run there (spot at $69).
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