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Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Completes 50% Fibonacci Retracement, Quick Sell Signal!

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Completes 50% Fibonacci Retracement, Quick Sell Signal!

Posted Friday, April 9, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 3 min read

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the safe-haven-metal prices failed to stop their early-day declining streak. Gold traded nicely in line with our previous forecast. and now it’s taking some additional offers around the $1,750 level mainly due to the risk-on market sentiment triggered by the large-cap tech stocks, with the S&P 500’s largest component Apple gaining 1.9%. It is worth mentioning that the tech stocks have been performing bullish amid an ongoing pullback in long-term U.S. government borrowing costs. The uptick in risk sentiment were seen as one of the key factors that undermined the safe-haven GOLD prices. Meanwhile, the continued optimism over more U.S. fiscal relief keeps the market trading sentiment positive, which weakens the safe-haven demand in the market and contributes to the yellow-metal losses.

In addition to this, the losses in the U.S. dollar were also seen as the key factor that kept gold down as its price is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar. In contrast, the ever-increasing coronavirus cases in Asia, along with intensified concerns over the side-effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine and mixed Chinese inflation data, probes the upbeat market mood, which could be seen as a bullish factor for the yellow metal. Furthermore, its losses were also capped by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on monetary policy, which tends to undermine the dollar and helps limit deeper losses in gold. As of writing, the yellow metal prices are currently trading at 1,750.87 and consolidating in the range between 1,750.76 and 1,757.39.

However, the market trading sentiment maintained its previous day’s positive performance. It drew some additional bids on the day as the positive performance of the S&P 500 Futures highlights the risk-on sentiment. However, the upticks were directed by large-cap tech stocks, with the S&P 500’s largest component Apple gaining 1.9%. It is worth mentioning that the tech stocks have been performing bullish amid an ongoing pullback in long-term U.S. government borrowing costs, which in turn, have caused the FANG+ index to grow by 1.4%, marking its ninth-straight day of gains, helping the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index to a 1.0% gain. Meanwhile, the hopes of more U.S. fiscal relief have also been played a major role in underpinning the market trading sentiment. Thus, the positive tone around the market sentiment capping the gains in the gold prices. Across the pond, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was on the wires on Thursday, wherein he told that the central bank is not thinking about reducing its support for the U.S. economy, saying at an International Monetary Fund event that while the economic reopening could result in a momentary surge in prices, he expects it to be short-lived and it will not create inflation.

Despite the disappointing jobs data and U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on monetary policy, the broad-based U.S. dollar managed to stop its previous session’s declining streak and took some bids on the day. However, the gains could be short-lived as the downbeat U.S. jobs data and the dovish comments from the Fed pushed the benchmark 10-year yields to a two-week low of 1.6170%. At the data front, the jobless claims surprisingly increased to 744,000, against the 680,000 claims in forecasts and the 728,000 claims filed during the previous week. Apart from this, the upbeat market mood caps further upside momentum for the U.S. dollar. However, the modest gains in the U.S. dollar were seen as one of the key factors that kept gold prices lower.

Conversely, the losses in gold could be short-lived or temporary as ever-increasing coronavirus cases along with concerns over the side-effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine probes the upbeat market mood, which could be understood as a bullish factor. Looking forward, the market traders will keep their eyes on the Producer Price Inflation data for March. Meanwhile, the CAD Employment Change along with Unemployment Rate will also key to watch.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Completes 50% Fibonacci Retracement, Quick Sell Signal!

Gold Daily Support and Resistance

S1 1710.76
S2 1730.87
S3 1743.17
Pivot Point 1750.98
R1 1763.28
R2 1771.09
R3 1791.2

GOLD is trading with a bearish bias at the 1,745 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1,756 level. The precious metal entered an overbought zone and fell sharply to complete 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1,745 level. We can also see an upward channel that seems to extend the buying trend in gold over 1,744/45. The violation of the 1,744 level can extend the gold price towards the 1,738 and 1,733 level today. Conversely, buying can be seen over 1,744 level until 1,752 area. Good luck!

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