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Dogecoin (DOGE) Can’t Hold The Line At $0.25

Dogecoin DOGE (-0.77%) has fallen beneath the $0.25 handle going into the July 4th holiday weekend. From a technical standpoint, this is an extremely bearish event. On the fundamental side of things, it’s a mixed picture as DOGE’s short-term underpinnings are cloudy at best.

At press time, two stories facing Dogecoin are making headlines. Here’s a quick look at each:

  • Robinhood: For the second day in a row, 0% commission broker Robinhood is in the news. However, this time it’s all about Dogecoin. In Robinhood’s IPO filing, the company stated that DOGE accounted for 34% of all crypto transactions. This is a huge number and suggests that retail traders continue to be very interested in buying and trading DOGE.
  • Elon Musk: Once again, Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted an obscure tweet addressing DOGE. The tweet is a picture of a bullish candlestick chart with the captions “dogecoin” and “Polytopia.” FYI, “Polytopia” is the name of a strategy game that is now included in Tesla electric vehicles “infotainment” system. What does Musk’s tweet mean? I have no idea.

From a pragmatic standpoint, the news from Robinhood is bullish as it illustrates the staggering 2021 interest in Dogecoin. On the other hand, Musk’s tweet comes off as a riddle and hasn’t been well received by the cryptomarkets. Perhaps Musk will provide some context or clarity via Twitter over the weekend.

Dogecoin Loses Its Foothold On $0.25

Tweet or no tweet, Dogecoin is bearish. On the monthly chart below, you can see just how far DOGE has fallen from last spring’s glory days.

DOGE/USD, Monthly Chart

Bottom Line: In technical analysis, converging indicators is a good thing. For the DOGE/USD, the Monthly SMA and 78% Macro-Wave Fibonacci Retracement sit at $0.1570-71. This is a key support level and one that will remain valid through July.

Until August 1, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from $0.1690. With an initial stop loss at $0.12, this trade produces $0.0800 (47%) on a 1:2 risk vs reward ratio.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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