Forex Signals Brief for March 17: ECB Hikes Rates by 50 bps, but Markets Focus on Banking Crisis
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
All the attention was on central banks and inflation until a week ago, and every piece of data was moving markets around. But the SVB bank failure opened the pandora box and now, the situation has turned upside-down as more banks are starting to fail. There have been important economic data releases this week, with the ECB rate decision yesterday, which brought the refinancing rate to 3.50% after a 50 bps raise.
From the US, we had unemployment claims and building permits which were positive while the Philly FED manufacturing index showed further deterioration. Although, the price action was slow, testing both sides in most assets but ended up without much change after all, which shows that traders are in fear of another banking crisis like the one we saw in 2008.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today the economic calendar is less interesting than most of what we have seen this week. The Final CPI (consumer price index) report will be released in a while, which is expected to show a slight cool-off in the headline inflation from 8.6% to 8.5%, while core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%. In the US session, we have the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and Prelim UoM inflation expectations.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday the price action slowed down despite more troubles in the banking sector. The situation with Credit Suisse which might have calmed, although the uncertainty remains high, which kept most assets trading in a tight range yesterday. We opened six trading signals, five of which closed in profit.
GOLD Holding Gains Above the 50 SMA
XAU continues to find strong bids, having climbed ytwice above $1,930 in the last two days. We continue to remain long on Gold since last Thursday, as the sentiment remains quite bullish, with the price heading for $2,000 on banking worries. Although, the bullish momentum slowed and we played both sides yesterday, ending up with three winning Gold signals.
XAU/USD – 60 minute chart
MAs Keeping WTI Bearish
Crude Oi made a bearish reversal last week and this week the decline picked up pace as the sentiment turned negative on banking issues. US WTI broke below the $70 suppot zone and we have been selling the retraces higher at MAs, since mocing averages are acting as resistance.
US Oil – 60 minute chart
Cryptocurrencies started surging higher during the weekend and pushed to new highs for the year earlier in the week, but have stabilized and on Wednesay we saw a retreat off the highs. But, they remain supported which shows that the buying pressure is still on.
BITCOIN Supported by the 20 SMA
Bitcoin resumed the bullish momentum over the weekend after retreating in late February, falling below $20,000. Buyers pushed the price of BTC/USD abpve $26,000 although a retreat followed, but the 20 SMA held as support on the H4 chart and we decided to open a buy Bitcoin signal.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
ETHEREUM Consolidating Between 2 MAs
Ethereum pushed above moving averages in January which soon turned into support. Early this week, buyers pushed the price above moving averges and the 20 SMA (gray) was acting as support on the H1 chart below. Although now the price remains stuck between the 100 SMA (green) at the bottom and the 50 SMA (yellow) at the top.