Strong Bullish Reversal in Crude Oil, on Improving Risk Sentiment

Posted Saturday, June 3, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

During the first part of the week, the price of crude Oil dropped to a three-week low at $67 lows as the USD was running higher while risk sentiment was negative. But later we saw a reversal on Thursday and Oil recovered significantly due to positive economic news and challenges faced by the US Dollar.

The rally in crude Oil was started after China’s Caixin manufacturing, which surpassed expectations and showed that activity turned into expansion again after falling in contracion earlier, also compensating for the weak official PMI reading released on Wednesday. Besides that, the US ADP jobs report released on Thursday  showed positive results, which was followed by a really sgtrong NFP report on Friday. The Eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) showed a decrease, further contributing to the positive sentiment in the market.

The weakness of the US Dollar helped Oil on Thursday, but risk currencies turned lower on Friday as rate hike odds by the FED increased again, although Oil continued higher. Now all eyes are on the OPEC+ meeting that will commence tomorrow. Various high-ranking officials from Oil-producing nations have been expressing their views on production targets, creating speculation and anticipation regarding the outcome of the meeting.

According to Reuters, three sources have reported that OPEC+ will discuss the possibility of implementing an additional oil production cut during the meeting scheduled for Sunday. Although the report does not explicitly mention the other options, it can be assumed that one of them is to adhere to the current production plan and anticipate tightening balances in the second half of the year.

US Oil Daily Chart – The Larger Trend Remains Bearish

WTI Oil making a reversal toward the end of the week

Crude Oil has been finding resistance at moving averages, particularly the 100 SMA (green) which has been pushing the highs lower and now the pricr is headed back there again after the stochastic indicator became oversold earlier this week. On Thursday the EIA inventories showed a major buildup, but that didn’t affect Oil price much.

EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the Previous Week

  • Crude oil build of 4.488 million versus an expected drawdown of -1.336 million
  • Gasoline stocks showed a drawdown of – 207K versus -497K expected

The API data on Wednesday showed crude oil stocks rose 5202K and gasoline a build of 1891K. So there was some divergence from the private inventory data. Natural gas is trading down $0.08 at $2.18.

US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Related Articles
0 0 vote
Article Rating
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments