EUR/USD Slipping Below 1.08 Again As Consumer Climate Deteriorates in the Eurozone

EUR/USD turned bearish more than a month ago, falling below 1.08 late last week ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, as the economic data from the Eurozone has continued to show a considerable slowdown, while the FED is not turning dovish just yet. However, it experienced a rebound from the lower trendline of a significant rising wedge pattern and touched 1.0840, where sellers stepped in twice in the last two days.

The price reversed and it has slipped below 1.08 again. So, the bearish trend continues to hold as the price continues to establish lower lows and lower highs. Additionally, the moving averages have crossed in a downward direction, further indicating the presence of a bearish trend.

President Lagarde did not provide clear indications about the future course of action. Similar to the approach of the Federal Reserve, she reiterated the ECB’s reliance on data and maintained a flexible stance. But, she held a more cautious tone, leaning towards a dovish stance, which should keep the Euro bearish.

Despite consistent underperformance in Eurozone data against expectations, recent reports on inflation and employment have shown robust figures. However, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for the Eurozone fell short of expectations across all sectors, with the Services sector experiencing a notable decline, pushing it into contraction.

During her participation in the Jackson Hole Symposium, President Lagarde did not strongly signal a direction. While her stance was not as accommodative as anticipated by the market, it wasn’t overly dovish either. Market expectations point to another 25 bps hike during the September meeting of the ECB. However, this decision is likely to be contingent upon the forthcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the forward guidance will likely sound dovish for EUR/USD , especially with the consumer suffering in the Eurozone.

German GfKConsumer Sentiment for August

  • September GfK consumer sentiment -25.5 points vs -24.3 expected
  • August consumer sentiment was -24.4 points; revised to -24.6 points

We’re seeing further deterioration in European consumer sentiment, as higher interest rates filter through to the bottom which is the final consumer. In September, German consumer sentiment is expected to decline even further, according to a report by GfK. The research institute has expressed concerns that the possibility of a sustainable recovery before the end of this year is diminishing progressively. This subdued economic environment has led GfK to predict that private consumption is unlikely to have any positive impact on the overall economy throughout the entirety of 2023.

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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