AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie Jumps to $0.6527 Amid Hawkish RBA
The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6527, showing resilience in the early hours of the Asian session on Wednesday. The AUD/USD price forecast benefits from a softer U.S. dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent hawkish tilt.
Market participants are now looking forward to remarks from RBA Governor Bullock on Friday for further direction. Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rates Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have set a cautious tone regarding interest rate adjustments.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledged the possibility of rate reductions later in the year, emphasizing the risks of moving prematurely.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also signaled nearing the Fed’s inflation targets on a shorter-term basis. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hesitancy to endorse a March rate cut and robust labor data suggest rate discussions could shift to later in the year.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: RBA’s Firm Stance
The RBA maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, noting a dip in inflation but acknowledging it remains elevated at 4.1%. The central bank has yet to dismiss the prospect of future rate hikes, keeping a vigilant eye on global economic conditions, domestic demand, inflation, and labour market trends. This assertive stance on inflation is lending buoyancy to the AUD/USD pair.
External Factors and Economic Data WatchYet, external uncertainties, including China’s economic trajectory and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, may restrain the AUD’s upside.
Investors are attuned to upcoming U.S. trade balance data and Fed commentary, while Chinese inflation figures will also provide critical insights for the AUD/USD pair’s movement.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
The Australian dollar is experiencing modest downward pressure against the U.S. dollar in the 4-hour trading chart, with the AUD/USD pair trading near $0.6526. For figuring out the immediate directional bias, it is crucial to use the pivot point at $0.6526 that the green line indicates.
The pair faces immediate resistance levels at $0.6548, $0.6578, and $0.6655, each potentially capping upward movements. Conversely, support levels below the pivot point are observed at $0.6480, $0.6453, and further down. These supports are essential for maintaining bearish sentiment if the price declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 49, suggesting a neutral market. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6550 poses a significant resistance that could hinder bullish attempts. A sustained move below this EMA could reinforce the bearish outlook and lead to further declines.
In conclusion, the AUD/USD is poised for potential selling pressure below the $0.6550 threshold, with the pair’s near-term trend leaning towards bearish.
AUD/USD Live Chart
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