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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles at $1.061 Amid U.S. Retail Sales Surge

As of the latest update, the EUR/USD is trading at $1.06121, marking a slight decline of 0.13%. This movement places the currency pair just below its pivot point of $1.0627, indicating a bearish trend under immediate pressure.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Key Price Levels and Market Sentiment

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The EUR/USD pair faces immediate resistance at $1.0682, with further barriers at $1.0726 and $1.0786. Should the pair breach these levels, it could signal a reversal to bullish momentum.

Conversely, support is established at $1.0566, with additional support at $1.0524 and $1.0471. A failure to hold above these levels could exacerbate the pair’s decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 20, suggesting the EUR/USD is heavily oversold, which might attract buying interest near key support levels.

Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0737 serves as a distant resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias unless a significant bullish breakout occurs. Recent Economic Events and Their Impact Recent data releases have influenced market dynamics significantly.

The U.S. saw robust retail sales growth at 0.7% for the month, surpassing expectations and hinting at sustained consumer strength, which supports a strong dollar scenario.

Simultaneously, the Empire State Manufacturing Index significantly underperformed, registering at -14.3, which could temper optimism about the U.S. economic outlook.

European economic indicators showed resilience with Industrial Production in the Eurozone recovering to 0.8%, a marked improvement from previous declines. Such data provides some support for the euro but is overshadowed by stronger U.S. economic performance and higher retail sales figures.

Upcoming Events to WatchInvestors and traders will closely monitor upcoming events, including speeches from various FOMC members and the release of U.S. housing and industrial production data.

Developments in these areas could provide further clues on the direction of Federal Reserve policy and subsequently impact EUR/USD trading strategies. Moreover, the European economic calendar remains busy with updates on trade balance and economic sentiment indicators.

These releases will provide insights into the Eurozone’s economic health and could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy direction.

Conclusion: Market Strategy

Given the current technical setup and upcoming economic events, the EUR/USD pair appears to maintain a bearish outlook below $1.0627.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Traders should prepare for potential volatility with key U.S. and European data releases on the horizon. A cautious approach is advisable, watching for a definitive break above the pivot to consider more bullish positions or preparing for further declines if support levels fail.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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