Oil Sinks for 4th Straight Session as OPEC+ Mulls 411K bpd Hike

Crude oil extended its decline Friday, marking a fourth consecutive daily drop as traders braced for a potential supply boost from OPEC+. Brent crude is down 1.9% this week, while WTI has shed 2.5%—a notable reversal after two straight weeks of gains.

According to Bloomberg, OPEC+ is considering an additional production hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July. Though not yet confirmed, the report has already sparked a shift in sentiment. The proposed increase would follow the group’s prior agreement to boost output by 1 million bpd between April and June.

“The oil market is under renewed pressure as noise builds around what OPEC+ will do with their July output levels,” ING analysts noted. Their base case: the hike moves forward, pushing Brent to average $59 by Q4.

Other bearish drivers include:

• U.S. crude inventory builds, spurring concerns of oversupply

• Surging storage demand, now at pandemic-era levels (Tank Tiger data)

• Geopolitical jitters now overshadowed by supply-side risks

Investors also await Friday’s U.S. Baker Hughes rig count for fresh supply cues and developments from the latest U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which may unlock additional barrels.

Crude Oil Technical Picture Points to Further Weakness

WTI crude remains in a vulnerable position. Price action on the 1-hour chart has slipped beneath the ascending trendline that previously defined its May rally. The recent failure to reclaim the $61.20–$61.28 resistance zone, a former support turned ceiling, underscores weak bullish conviction.

Technical breakdown:

• EMA Signals: WTI is trading below both the 50-EMA ($61.20) and the $61.28 resistance, reinforcing the short-term bearish setup.

• MACD View: Although histogram bars are recovering, MACD and signal lines remain under zero—momentum is weak.

• Key Support: $60.09 is the immediate level to watch. A clean break here could expose $59.13 and $58.08 next.

Traders should remain cautious unless WTI reclaims the $61.28 zone with convincing volume.

What to Watch Moving Forward

The coming days could offer clarity—or more volatility. The June 1 OPEC+ meeting will be pivotal. Should the bloc proceed with the expected 411K bpd hike, bearish pressure may persist into summer.

In the meantime, WTI’s structure remains fragile. Consolidation beneath $61 suggests indecision, but as long as prices hold below that level and the broken trendline, the downside bias prevails.

Key levels to monitor:

• Support: $60.09, $59.13, $58.08

• Resistance: $61.20 (50-EMA), $61.28, $62.49

• Momentum Trigger: MACD crossing zero, price reclaiming EMA cluster

Until momentum shifts decisively, oil’s short-term path of least resistance is lower.