Bitcoin Rebounds to $103.8K After $1.47B Sell Day—Trump-Musk Feud Looms Large
Bitcoin rebounds from $102K as LTHs lock $1.47B profit. Trump-Musk feud, tariffs, and weak jobs data stir recession fears.
Quick overview
On Friday, the BTC/USD is trading with a bearish bias, around $103,500. According to Glassnode data, long term holders (LTHs) locked in $1.47 billion in daily realised profits last week – one of the clearest signs yet that seasoned investors who weather extreme volatility are now trimming their positions.
Veteran Investors Selling
30 day moving average for LTH realised profits is now at $1 billion per day, which is more than 3x the $320 million per day being generated by short term holders.
This is a big imbalance and suggests we are entering a maturing phase of the market cycle where experienced investors are de-risking their portfolios.
While this profit taking doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate market reversal, it does raise the question: is Bitcoin running out of steam or is this just a healthy reset before the next leg up?
Political Drama Adds to Uncertainty
As if macro wasn’t enough, we now have a very public feud between two big players: Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Musk has been critical of Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” saying it could increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion and put the US economy into recession. He didn’t stop there, he also criticized Trump’s trade strategy saying renewed tariffs could harm US innovation and trigger a recession in 2025.
Trump fired back quickly, saying Musk was bitter about the potential rollback of electric vehicle subsidies and that the EV mandate was “something nobody asked for”.
This public spat comes at a sensitive time for markets and adds to long term fiscal risks. With Bitcoin being positioned as a hedge against bad monetary policy, these political developments are more important for crypto investors.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: At a Crossroads
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin BTC/USD is bouncing from $102,439 support and is currently at $103,800. The bounce has formed higher lows and a bullish engulfing pattern on the charts – both good signs of buying interest.
But resistance is tight and strong. For a convincing break out, BTC needs to clear:
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The trendline
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The 50 period EMA at $104,369
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Horizontal resistance at $104,403If the momentum continues, the next target would be the 200 period EMA at $105,302, then $106,745 and $108,839.
Trade Setup:
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Entry: $104,600 (after breakout)
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Target: $106,700
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Stop: $102,800
If price action fails to break resistance, expect another test of $102,000 or even $100,449.
Veteran investors taking profits and the political drama makes for a tough environment for Bitcoin. While the charts still look up, traders should be cautious as the market absorbs this.
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