Forex Signals October 16: TSM, Schwab, U.S. Bancorp Earnings Before Market Open

Quick overview

Live BTC/USD Chart

0.0000

MARKETS TREND

TRADE BTC/USD

Earnings season intensifies as Taiwan Semiconductor, Charles Schwab, and U.S. Bancorp unveil their Q3 results.

Dollar Slides Further as Dovish Fed Tone Dominates

The U.S. dollar continued to weaken for a second consecutive session as traders reacted to dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His remarks highlighted potential softness in the labor market and hinted that the central bank could soon pause its balance sheet runoff, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts.

Market pricing now reflects an anticipated 25-basis-point cut in both November and December, as investors adjust to the Fed’s more accommodative stance.

Bessent Urges Cooperation with China Amid Trade Tensions

Treasury Secretary Bessent struck a conciliatory tone on U.S.-China relations, saying that Washington “wants to help China, not hurt it.” However, he warned that Beijing’s economic coercion could ultimately undermine its own growth.

He added that multiple high-level meetings are scheduled this week to address China’s latest trade restrictions, a topic increasingly central to global market sentiment.

Fed Officials Reinforce Dovish Shift

Adding to the softer rhetoric, Fed Governor Miran—a recent Trump appointee known for her dovish leanings—remarked that “two more rate cuts this year sound realistic.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book painted a picture of a slowing but stable economy, noting that overall U.S. activity was little changed in recent weeks. Most districts described growth as modest or flat, with early signs of easing demand, while employment conditions remained steady.

Commodities Diverge: Oil Weakens, Gold Surges

Oil prices extended their downward slide, with WTI crude falling to $58.20, marking an 18% decline year-to-date—well below the $130 highs seen in 2022.

Analyst Adam Button noted that global oil demand has hit record levels, but OPEC+’s continued supply expansion has kept prices subdued.

In contrast, precious metals surged. Gold jumped $63 (+1.54%) to $4,206, Silver climbed $1.62 (+3.14%) to $53.07, with both on pace for record closing highs as investors sought refuge amid global uncertainty.

Stocks Mixed Ahead of Key U.S. Data

Major U.S. stock indices traded choppily through the session before closing mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surrendered part of yesterday’s gains, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished near mid-range levels, reflecting investor caution ahead of upcoming data releases.

Key Forex Events to Watch Today: 

Thursday will bring Australia’s employment figures and, in the U.S., a trio of reports—PPI, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims—provided the government shutdown concludes in time. Friday’s focus will turn to the housing sector, with building permits and housing starts due for release.

UK Labor Data Keeps BoE on Hold

Across the Atlantic, the UK’s average earnings index (3m/y) is expected to remain at 4.7%, alongside an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.7%.

With wage growth still elevated, the Bank of England faces persistent inflation pressures and is likely to keep interest rates steady through year-end. Fiscal tightening and weak consumer spending continue to cloud the outlook for the British economy.

Major Earnings Releases – October 2025 Preview

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)

• Earnings Release: Q3 2025 Results
• Time: Before Market Open (BMO)
• Consensus EPS Estimate: $2.63 per share

Focus Areas:

• Global chip demand recovery amid AI-driven orders
• Impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on supply chains
• Foundry pricing and capacity utilization outlook
• Market Sentiment: TSM’s results will serve as a barometer for semiconductor health and global tech manufacturing trends.

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

• Earnings Release: Q3 2025 Results
• Time: Before Market Open (BMO)
• Consensus EPS Estimate: $1.25 per share

Focus Areas:

• Net interest income trajectory amid rate-cut expectations
• Client inflows and trading activity
• Brokerage margin recovery after a volatile quarter
• Market Sentiment: Investors will watch for commentary on retail trading volume and asset management growth as market volatility impacts client behavior.

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

• Earnings Release: Q3 2025 Results
• Time: Before Market Open (BMO)
• Consensus EPS Estimate: $1.12 per share

Focus Areas:

• Loan growth and credit quality trends
• Deposit stability amid competition for yields
• Cost-cutting measures and digital banking adoption

Forex Signals Update

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

Related Articles

Safe-Haven Gold Spikes to Record High on US-China Clash and Rate-Cut Buzz

2 h ago

Save

Bitcoin Under Siege: $74K Drop in Sight Amid Bearish Surge

2 h ago

Save

Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 in Sight as Fed Cut Bets and Trade Risks Rise

2 h ago

Save