BTC Price Prediction: Resilient Bitcoin Ready to Rebound Amid Fed Cuts, Policy Shifts
With U.S. rate reduction, policy changes, and tightening supply dynamics paving the way for another bullish phase, Bitcoin's impressive...
Quick overview
- Bitcoin's rebound above $110,000 reflects renewed investor confidence amid favorable macro conditions and tightening supply dynamics.
- Despite significant volatility, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience by stabilizing near $114,000 after a sharp decline triggered by geopolitical events.
- Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have surged, highlighting the growing role of institutional capital in stabilizing the market.
- Favorable policy shifts and global recognition of Bitcoin's value as a hedge against currency risk are setting the stage for potential new all-time highs.
Live BTC/USD Chart
With U.S. rate reduction, policy changes, and tightening supply dynamics paving the way for another bullish phase, Bitcoin’s impressive recovery above $110,000 indicates a renewed sense of investor confidence.
A Volatile but Triumphant October
After a month marked by intense volatility, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is showing fresh signs of strength. The cryptocurrency briefly soared to a record $126,000, only to plunge to $104,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump’s sudden 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports triggered a wave of global panic. The move wiped nearly $380 billion from Bitcoin’s market value and caused one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Is Holding
Despite the chaos, Bitcoin proved its resilience. The price quickly rebounded, stabilizing near $114,000, as long-term holders and institutional investors took advantage of the dip to reaccumulate. Even after another brief pullback below $107,000, buyers returned decisively, defending major technical support levels across multiple timeframes and reinforcing confidence in the broader uptrend.
BTC/USD Chart Daily – The 200 SMA Is Acting As Support Here
By week’s end, Bitcoin closed just above $110,000 with a daily trading volume exceeding $30.6 billion, reflecting sustained demand even amid heightened volatility.
Technical Strength and Tightening Supply
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s latest bounce found firm footing at the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) — a key cyclical support that has historically marked long-term reversal zones. The rebound from this level indicates robust buying interest and suggests the broader bull trend remains intact.
At the same time, exchange balances continue to shrink, with more than 45,000 BTC (worth roughly $4.8 billion) withdrawn to cold storage since early October. This steep decline in exchange supply reflects growing investor conviction in holding Bitcoin for the long term and hints at tightening market conditions that could amplify future rallies.
Momentum indicators are turning positive, with the stochastic oscillator flashing early bullish signals. Traders are eyeing a potential retest of the $130,000 region, though resistance near $116,000 — where key moving averages converge — must first be cleared for a full technical breakout.
Institutional Confidence Anchors the Market
Institutional activity continues to provide a powerful cushion against volatility. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $2.7 billion in inflows in the week ending October 10, led overwhelmingly by BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone absorbed $2.63 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC also saw steady inflows, while outflows from funds such as GBTC and ARK 21Shares were minimal.
With nearly 800,000 BTC under management, IBIT’s holdings now approach $100 billion, making it the fastest-growing ETF in U.S. history. These inflows underline the deepening role of institutional capital in stabilizing the crypto market and offsetting short-term retail-driven fluctuations.
Although U.S.-based ETFs experienced temporary outflows later in the month — totaling nearly $700 million over two sessions — the underlying demand from global institutions remains resilient, helping Bitcoin maintain its strong base above the $100,000 psychological level.
Policy Tailwinds and Global Sentiment Shift
Macro conditions have turned increasingly favorable. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut last week reinvigorated appetite for risk assets and weakened the dollar — both tailwinds for Bitcoin’s performance. The move also reinforced market expectations that the Fed will maintain a supportive stance into early 2026.
Adding to the optimism, President Donald Trump’s pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was seen as a potential turning point in U.S. crypto regulation. The gesture was widely interpreted as a signal of softer policy toward digital assets, lifting sentiment across the market.
Beyond the U.S., Southeast Asian nations including Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines are exploring the addition of Bitcoin to national reserves, signaling a global recognition of its store-of-value potential. This international momentum is further strengthening Bitcoin’s position as a legitimate hedge against currency risk and inflation.
Conclusion: A Foundation for the Next Bull Phase
Bitcoin’s ability to recover from extreme volatility and reclaim the $110,000 level underscores its maturity as a global asset. With tightening supply, strong institutional participation, and favorable macro policies aligning, the stage appears set for a potential push toward new all-time highs in the months ahead.
As long as technical support holds and central banks remain accommodative, Bitcoin’s resilience could soon evolve into renewed momentum — marking the beginning of its next major rally.
Bitcoin Live Chart
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