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Forex Signals Brief for Nov 20: Retail Sales Ahead

US Market Wrap

Markets and risk assets might have ticked higher yesterday, but momentum was far from strong.

The major equities indexes were up on the session, but sentiment was dented by some soft projections from Fed officials, along with another poor US jobless claims number.

We have been watching claims data for a long time now and yesterdays print jumped higher and is still holding above the 7 million mark.

Interestingly, the USD did slide in late trade, and overall it is still looking very weak.


The Data Agenda

The focus early on today will be in the UK as they release their latest retail sales data.

The expectation is for a sluggish number at just 0.1% for October. This is down on the prior and a negative is not out of the question. As lockdown measure continue, this is a tough number to see increasing in the short-term.

The over to Canada and we will also get retail sales as well. They might not be facing the same level of lockdowns, but it is clear that this will also be a weak number at similar type levels.


Forex Signal Update

The FX Leaders Team finished with just the one winner in the USD/JPY in what was a quiet session. We have a couple of open signals so look to the forex signals page for all the latest developments.


AUD/USD – Active Signal 

The AUD/USD has been struggling above 0.7300 and certainly can’t crack 0.7340. As such, we are short here looking for those levels to hold up.

AUD/USD – 240min.


NZD/USD – Active Signal 

The NZD/USD is arguably the strongest of the majors at the moment and we are long above key support at 0.6900.

NZD/USD – 240min.


Cryptocurrency Update

BTC has been breaking out this week and we are now moving into the second phase of the move.

As we can see on the chart, after price hit the $18,000 level, it started to run out of momentum and is now in the familiar pattern where it consolidated and volatility contracts.

This is often the precursor to another move. Generally speaking, a triangle pattern (or flag/pennant) is a bullish signal, but we do know that Bitcoin moves in waves.

As such, we can trade either side of the breakout. If it falls, it will likely go back and test $16,500, otherwise, there is room up to the record highs above.

That said, I think it’s clear that the longer-term move is bullish, so looking for areas to enter to the long side while managing risk, should be the focus at the moment.

BTC – 240min.
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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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