Weekly Gold Price Forecast: Eyes on $2165 as Key Economic Events Loom
Gold concluded the week at $2165.31, marking a 0.43% increase. As we look to the week ahead, several key economic events are poised
Arslan Butt•Saturday, March 23, 2024•2 min read
Gold concluded the week at $2165.31, marking a 0.43% increase. As we look to the week ahead, several key economic events are poised to influence gold prices. Understanding these can help new traders gauge potential market movements.
Economic Events Ahead
Monday, March 25:
- New Home Sales are expected at 675K, up from the previous 661K. A higher-than-expected number can boost USD strength, potentially pressuring gold prices downward.
Tuesday, March 26:
- Core Durable Goods Orders month-over-month are anticipated to rise by 0.4%, recovering from a previous 0.4%. This could signal strengthening economic activity, affecting gold.
- Durable Goods Orders month-over-month are predicted to increase by 1.2%, a significant rebound from -6.2%. This is another indicator of economic health, potentially impacting gold.
- The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI year-over-year is expected at 6.6%, up from 6.1%, reflecting a healthy real estate market.
- CB Consumer Confidence is forecasted slightly higher at 106.9 compared to 106.7, indicating positive consumer sentiment.
- The Richmond Manufacturing Index is projected to remain at -5, reflecting steady manufacturing activity.
Wednesday, March 27:
- FOMC Member Waller is scheduled to speak. Comments on monetary policy can directly influence gold prices.
Thursday, March 28:
- The final GDP quarter-over-quarter is expected to stay at 3.2%, suggesting steady economic growth.
- Unemployment Claims are predicted at 214K, slightly higher than the previous 210K, offering insights into labour market conditions.
- The Chicago PMI is forecasted at 45.9, up from 44, indicating regional manufacturing activity.
- Pending Home Sales month-over-month are expected to rise by 1.5%, showing a potential recovery in the housing market.
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment remains at 76.5, reflecting consumer confidence levels.
Friday, March 29:
- The Core PCE Price Index month-over-month is forecasted at 0.3%, slightly below the previous 0.4%, indicating inflation trends.
- Fed Chair Powell speaks, and his remarks on the economy and monetary policy could have a significant impact on gold prices.
New traders should watch these events closely, as they offer valuable insights into economic trends that can affect gold prices. Strong economic indicators typically strengthen the USD, putting pressure on gold, whereas signs of economic weakness can boost gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Gold’s pivot point holds around $2165. The upcoming week’s outlook hinges on key resistance and support levels, identified at $2189 and $2147, respectively, setting the stage for potential market movements.
Immediate resistance levels are staged at $2189, $2204, and $2223, suggesting barriers gold may face if it attempts an upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels at $2147, $2128, and $2111 will test gold’s resilience in the face of selling pressures.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 indicates a leaning towards overbought conditions, suggesting caution among traders.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2088 provides a longer-term bullish signal, yet the formation of a Doji candle on the daily timeframe signals potential weakness ahead. Additionally, a bearish engulfing pattern near $2164 underscores the selling trend, potentially influencing gold’s path in the coming week.
In conclusion, gold’s immediate future appears bearish below the $2165 threshold, barring any significant fundamental shifts that could alter its course.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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