Walmart Revenue Miss But WMT Stock Eyes $100 on Digital Growth, FY25 Guidance

Quick overview

Walmart’s e-commerce growth, margin improvement, and optimistic full-year expectation remain impressive, despite a brief selloff in WMT shares following a fiscal Q1 revenue miss.

Post-Earnings Drop Doesn’t Derail Long-Term Trend

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) stock slid nearly 5% on Thursday after reporting weaker-than-expected revenue for the first fiscal quarter. The stock fell from $96.83 to $92 intraday before rebounding to erase much of the decline—a signal of underlying investor confidence.

While management acknowledged challenges from potential tariff hikes, the subsequent delay and scaling back of those tariffs allowed the retail giant to maintain its full-year forecast. Despite the revenue miss, underlying fundamentals remained solid.

WMT Stock Chart Daily – Buyers Come Back Quickly

Strength in Digital, Resilient U.S. Sales Drive Confidence

Walmart exceeded earnings expectations in Q1 thanks to strong digital sales, effective cost management, and healthy growth in the U.S. segment. Global e-commerce sales rose 22%, fueled by expanding store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services and a growing advertising business that supports faster order turnaround.

Margin improvement and disciplined inventory practices helped offset some external pressures, including foreign exchange fluctuations and global macro uncertainty.

Walmart Q1 FY26 Highlights

EPS & Revenue Beat

• Adj. EPS: $0.61 (↑1.7% YoY, beat $0.57 est.)
• Revenue: $165.61B (↑2.5% YoY; 4% cc growth) despite FX headwinds

E-Commerce & Advertising Strength

• Global e-commerce sales: ↑22%
• Membership income: ↑14.8%
• Global ad business: ↑50%

Margins & Profitability

• Gross margin: ↑12 bps to 24.2% (better inventory mgmt, reduced markdowns)
• Operating income: $7.1B (↑4.3% YoY)
• Operating expenses: slight deleverage (↑6 bps) due to depreciation, claims, Vizio costs

Segment Breakdown

Walmart U.S.

• Sales: $112.2B (↑3.2%)
• Comp sales ex-fuel: ↑4.5% (transactions ↑1.6%, ticket ↑2.8%)
• E-commerce: ↑21%
• Delivery under 3 hrs now reaches 93% of U.S. homes
• Operating income: ↑7% to $5.7B

Walmart International

• Sales: $29.8B (↓0.3% due to FX; ↑7.8% cc)
• Strong growth in China, Flipkart, Walmex
• E-commerce: ↑20%
• Membership income: ↑22%
• Operating income (cc): ↓6.4% to $1.4B

Sam’s Club U.S.

• Sales: $19.7B (↑5.5%, ex-fuel)
• Comp sales: ↑6.7% (transactions ↑4.8%, ticket ↑1.7%)
• E-commerce: ↑27%
• Membership income: ↑9.6%
• Operating income: ↑11.5% to $0.7B

Financial Position & Capital Return

• Cash: $9.3B
• Total debt: $52.9B
• Q1 Op. cash flow: $5.4B | Free cash flow: $0.4B
• Capex for FY26: 3–3.5% of net sales
• Q1 share buybacks: $4.6B (50.4M shares)
• Remaining repurchase authorization: $7.5B

FY26 Outlook

Q2 FY26: Net sales growth of 3.5–4.5% cc (Vizio adds 20 bps)

FY26 Full Year:

• Net sales growth: 3–4% cc
• Operating income: ↑3.5–5.5% cc
• Adj. EPS: $2.50–$2.60 (vs $2.51 in FY25)
• Net interest expense: +$100–200M

Jitters Weigh, But Stock Recovers on Broader Optimism

Earlier this year, rising U.S.-China trade tensions saw Walmart shares plunge from $105 to below $80—a steep 25% drop. Yet since mid-April, the stock has gained back around $20, demonstrating a 25% rally, buoyed by consumer sector strength and renewed optimism in tech.

Though Thursday’s dip followed a negative gap at the open, the quick recovery to $96 signals positive market sentiment. A renewed push toward the $100 mark appears likely if current momentum holds.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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