CrowdStrike CRWD Stock Dives From Record Highs, Forecast Stops Rally – Rebound?

Quick overview

CrowdStrike’s stock price plummeted dramatically in after-hours trading as investors absorbed a bleak outlook for 2025, despite the company’s good performance in the previous fiscal year.

Stock Pullback After New Highs

CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ: CRWD) experienced a notable drop in after-hours trading following its updated outlook, which fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Shares slid nearly $30 after closing at an all-time high above $490, as investors responded to a weaker-than-expected forecast for the upcoming quarters.

Despite a strong fiscal 2024 performance, including rising earnings and top-line growth, the outlook for fiscal 2025 and beyond introduced fresh concerns that weighed heavily on sentiment.

Guidance Disappoints Amid Record Quarter

For the fiscal second quarter, CrowdStrike projected revenue in the range of $1.14 billion to $1.15 billion—slightly below the analyst consensus of $1.16 billion. This cautious tone follows a strong Q4 showing, in which the company beat expectations with earnings per share rising 8% to $1.03 and revenue increasing by 25% to $1.06 billion, bolstered by recent acquisitions.

CRWD Stock Price Chart Weekly – Price Still Trades Above Resistance After the Gap Tomorrow

While the short-term profitability was welcomed, the forward-looking statements cast a shadow. The company’s full-year revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 came in between $4.744 billion and $4.805 billion—just under the consensus estimate of $4.768 billion. Even more notably, the firm withheld a complete forecast for Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), missing analyst expectations of $5.058 billion.

CrowdStrike 2025 Outlook Key Highlights

Full-Year Revenue Outlook:

• CrowdStrike reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $4.74 billion to $4.81 billion, aligning closely with Wall Street’s consensus of $4.79 billion.

Adjusted EPS Forecast:

• The company raised its adjusted earnings per share estimate to a range of $3.44 to $3.56, up from prior guidance. This compares favorably with the $3.45 consensus estimate.
• Q1 Financial Performance: Revenue came in at $1.1 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, and matched analyst expectations.
• Adjusted net income was $184.7 million, or $0.73 per share, down from $196.8 million, or $0.79 per share, in the same quarter last year—though still above estimates.
• Share Buyback Authorization: CrowdStrike’s board approved a $1 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term value.
• Workforce Reduction: The earnings come shortly after the company announced plans to cut 500 jobs—about 5% of its global workforce—in an effort to streamline operations and improve margins.

Lingering Effects from Global IT Outage

Much of the caution appears tied to the lingering effects of the widespread IT failure that struck in July 2024. This incident disrupted global business operations and, according to analysts, could now impact contract renewals. Many of CrowdStrike’s enterprise clients are expected to seek pricing concessions during upcoming negotiations, potentially pressuring margins and growth.

This has led some analysts to revise their expectations for fiscal 2026, casting doubt on the company’s ability to maintain its recent growth trajectory.

Looking Ahead: A Possible Rebound?

Despite the recent selloff, there’s historical precedent for optimism. After a sharp drop to the $300 level earlier this year—also due to future guidance concerns—CRWD stock rebounded sharply, continuing its broader uptrend. While the current decline may feel steep, the pullback could present an opportunity for longer-term investors.

If the company’s core fundamentals remain strong and broader sentiment stabilizes, there’s a real possibility that CRWD could return to its highs and even surpass the $500 threshold in the next growth cycle.

Conclusion: CrowdStrike’s latest financial report illustrates a classic tech stock dilemma: impressive present-day performance overshadowed by market fears about future growth. Though short-term volatility has returned, the underlying momentum in cybersecurity demand and CrowdStrike’s leadership position in the sector may yet support another leg higher once investor confidence is restored.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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