$135B in JSE Exports at Risk as Index Eyes Breakout Above ZAR 89,157

Quick overview

The JSE Top 40 Index rose 0.22% to trade near ZAR 88,846 on Monday as investor sentiment improved ahead of the high-stakes US-China trade talks in London. The rand was steady as global optimism was balanced by local uncertainty.

Attention is now turning to local manufacturing and mining data as well as Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s revised budget which has only minor changes. Markets are waiting to see if fiscal clarity emerges from the parliamentary discussions.

JSE Top 40 Tests Resistance at ZAR 89,157

Technically the JSE Top 40 is still in an uptrend within a rising channel with the bulls consolidating around ZAR 88,850. The 50-period EMA at ZAR 87,437 is acting as a dynamic support and is holding the trend.

Price action shows short-term indecision with several small candles forming below the key horizontal resistance at ZAR 89,157. A break above this level could trigger up to ZAR 89,583 and then ZAR 90,019. The RSI is at 64.20 and is warning of exhaustion.

Trade Setup:

• Entry: Buy on break above ZAR 89,160
• Stop-loss: Below ZAR 88,518
• Targets: ZAR 89,580 (TP1), ZAR 90,000 (TP2)
• Bias: Bullish above ZAR 88,518

Carbon Tariffs Threaten $135B in SA Exports

While the JSE is up modestly, South Africa’s carbon intensive economy is under threat. A report by the Net Zero Tracker says 78% of the country’s exports – valued at over ZAR 2.4 trillion ($135 billion) – are going to countries with net zero carbon targets. This includes 1.2 million jobs directly linked to sectors vulnerable to carbon border taxes.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is in its trial phase and targets imports like steel and cement. Full implementation is set for 2026. The South African Reserve Bank estimates up to 10% reduction in exports with trade to the EU alone expected to fall 4% by 2030.

Green Energy Transition Gains Momentum

Despite these challenges, South Africa has a way out. The country has plenty of renewable energy and access to critical minerals for low-carbon technologies. Investors are starting to rotate into green sectors and renewables are outperforming on the JSE.

John Lang of the Net Zero Tracker says South Africa can reposition its export model and save jobs by speeding up its transition to sustainable industries. This green pivot can offset the impact of global climate policies and create new economic opportunities in clean energy supply chains.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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