Bitcoin Price Prediction: Eyes $111.8K: Will $1.08B Shorts Fuel the Next Major Breakout?
Bitcoin is once again flirting with its all-time high, currently trading at $109,323 just 2.3% below its record peak of $111,970.
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,323, just 2.3% below its all-time high of $111,970, creating a high-stakes scenario for investors.
- Analysts from Bitfinex caution that without a strong macro catalyst, Bitcoin may struggle to break through this psychological resistance level.
- Investors who bought Bitcoin below $80K are faced with the decision to take profits or hold for potential further gains, as their unrealized gains stand at approximately 39%.
- Technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but a dip towards $107,300–$108,000 could present buying opportunities if bullish patterns emerge.
Bitcoin is once again flirting with its all-time high, currently trading at $109,323 just 2.3% below its record peak of $111,970. This tight range has created a high-stakes scenario for both short-term speculators and long-term holders. Those who entered the market during Q1 2025, when Bitcoin bottomed at $78,513, are now sitting on gains of roughly 39%, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitfinex analysts, however, strike a cautious tone. “There’s no strong macro or structural catalyst in play, making BTC vulnerable to a pullback,” they noted. Their report highlights that unless a significant event occurs, Bitcoin may struggle to surpass this psychological level.
Adding pressure is the $1.08 billion in short positions on the line, per CoinGlass. If BTC pierces resistance, those shorts could be forced to cover, triggering a wave of liquidations that may drive prices higher—but also spark extreme volatility.
Long-Term Holders at a Crossroads
Investors who bought the dip below $80K now face a key decision: take profits or bet on a breakout. Historically, the BTC/USD tends to trade sideways following a surge to new highs, as it did in 2024 after hitting $73,679.
Key Levels & Stats:
- Q1 2025 Low: $78,513
- Current Price: $109,323
- Unrealized Gains: +39%
- Short Interest: $1.08 billion
Bitfinex analysts believe that the actions of these holders will shape the next phase of the cycle. A sudden wave of selling could trigger a local top, while patient holding might tighten supply, supporting further gains.
Technical Setup: Watch $107.3K–$108K Support
Bitcoin’s recent rally from $105,378 to $110,549 was marked by a textbook “Three White Soldiers” candlestick pattern—three strong green candles that often signal trend reversals. But the rally is showing signs of fatigue, with price stalling at the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $109,323.
Technically, momentum remains bullish:
- Price remains above the 50 EMA ($106,610) and 200 EMA ($105,724)
- A confluence of support exists between $107,339 and $107,952 (0.5–0.618 Fib levels + ascending trendline)
- A spinning top candle suggests buyer hesitation, not rejection
Trade Idea:
If Bitcoin dips toward $107,300–$108,000, watch for bullish candlestick patterns like a hammer or engulfing candle. This could signal a bounce back toward $110,549 or even a breakout above $111,821. A stop-loss just below $106,466 protects against downside risk.
Until a major macro trigger—such as the June 18 Fed decision or Trump’s tariff policy update—provides clarity, Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain choppy, testing traders’ patience.
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