Surging Platinum Price Lifts Impala (JSE: IMP) Shares 80% – Buy the Breakout?

Quick overview

Impala Platinum shares have surged sharply this month, fueled by an explosive rally in platinum prices and a key technical breakout on the charts.

Impala Platinum Extends Strong Rally Into June

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (JSE:IMP) continued its impressive rebound this week, with shares rising another 5% on Wednesday. The stock opened at 15,310 ZAC and closed at 15,621 ZAC, extending its weekly gain to 10%.

Since the beginning of June, IMP shares have climbed 20%. More notably, they are now up over 80% from their April lows, when the price found support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) near 8,700 ZAC. That bounce has since triggered a bullish reversal on the long-term chart, with clear higher highs and higher lows forming since March 2024.

IMP Share Chart Weekly – Break Above 200 Weekly SMA Signals Technical Shift

Wednesday’s close took IMP shares above the 200-week SMA—previously acting as resistance—confirming a major breakout. This long-term level had capped price advances since 2022, and its breach could now open the path toward retesting the 2021–2022 highs between 30,000 and 31,000 ZAC.

The structure of the weekly chart has now flipped decisively to bullish, suggesting that long-term momentum is turning in favor of continued upside.

Platinum Prices Fuel Optimism Despite Weak Earnings

The surge in IMP stock has closely mirrored platinum’s performance. The precious metal extended its rally to an eighth straight session on Wednesday, hitting $1,285.61 per ounce—its highest price in over four years. Spot platinum was up nearly 4% on the day, closing at $1,200.95, with a weekly gain of 14%.

Spot Platinum Chart Weekly – Testing 2020 Highs

The catalyst behind the price run is a tightening supply outlook. Investors rushed to secure physical platinum earlier this year amid concerns that President Trump might tax the metal, pushing physical inventories into U.S. warehouses. Now, much of that supply is being re-exported, adding to the market’s perceived scarcity.

Supporting this view, lease rates for platinum in London and Zurich have reached record highs. Typically near zero, one-month lease rates are now above 13.5% annually, highlighting the increasing cost of borrowing the metal.

Revenue Pressures Remain a Risk Factor

Despite the surge in metal prices, Impala’s financials remain under pressure. Last year, the company saw a 7.6% decline in sales, while revenue is down 33% over the past three years. There’s little to suggest a meaningful internal recovery has taken place—yet.

Looking forward, analyst forecasts show a modest 12% revenue growth for the next fiscal year. That’s well below the 84% expected industry growth, which could limit upside unless platinum prices continue to offset earnings weakness.

Outlook: Platinum-Driven Momentum May Outweigh Fundamentals

While Impala still faces serious challenges on the revenue front, the current rally appears driven by external tailwinds—particularly platinum’s explosive rally and improving technical signals. With the breakout above the 200-week SMA and strong upward momentum in commodities, investors may be betting that the worst is behind for IMP, at least in the near term.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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