Risk Assets Slightly Bullish, Despite the Crash in China
China’s economy is going from bad to worse. Lat month we saw a deep dive in manufacturing and service sectors due to the coronavirus lockdowns. In the first major lockdowns two years ago, manufacturing bounced pretty quickly but now it is diving deep, which means that it is affecting exports from china, with many ships stuck out of Chinese ports waiting for cargo. This will be another major problem in the global supply chain which will likely keep prices up as well.
Data from China April 2022
- Retail sales YoY -11.1% vs -6.1% expected
- Previous sales YoY were -3.5%
- Industrial production YoY -2.9% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior industrial production was +5.0%
- Investment, fixed asset excluding rural YoY +6.8% vs 7.0% expected
- Prior investment YoY were 9.3%
- Urban jobless rate 6.1% vs 5.8% expected
- Prior jobless rate was 6.0%
As you can see, retail sales and industrial output have both collapsed for March and are lower than even the lackluster expectations for April. Terrible numbers (they could be even worse given the doubts that tend to accompany official data from China).
Some analyst responses coming in:
- these economic numbers are some of the worst ever reported
The China data is negative for AUD and other ‘risk’ assets.
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