Crude Oil has continued to be bearish for more than a month, providing some relief for motorists at the pumps. The national average for gas prices in the US sits around $4.419 per gallon with 8 states under $4 and the most common price at $3.99. This is welcome news after Joe Biden’s unsuccessful trip to Saudi Arabia where he was unable to convince the delegates to increase the oil supply.

WTI prices fell even though we saw a decline in crude oil stocks of 446,000 when it was anticipated that there would be a stock build of 1.357 million from the Energy Information Agency (EIA) – which is a fairly noticeable swing. Furthermore, Oil prices continue to drop despite OPEC operating close to maximum capacity.

At the end of last week, we saw a reversal though as the USD kept declining, and today we saw another attempt from buyers. But the 200 SMA (purple) stopped the climb and now WTI Oil is reversing back down again. we decided to open a sell signal below that moving average, around $95.70 and now we’re waiting for the price to decline further.   

Crude Oil H1 Chart – The 200 SMA Acting as Resistance

The retrace higher seems complete on the H1 chart 

Crude Oil seems overbought on the H1 chart now, as the stochastic indicator shows. Now, this indicator is reversing down so it looks like the downtrend will continue. So, we’re holding on to our sell Oil signal and hopefully will book profit as we approach the FED rate decision on Wednesday.

US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart