Forex Signals Brief for Apr 29: GDP and FOMC Ahead
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
US Market Wrap
Markets ended the day relatively flat as most investors and traders are awaiting what is set to be an explosive US session.
While the FOMC and GDP are out in the US today, yesterday, was more of a sombre affair. The SPX finished marginally lower, while the Greenback fell under the 100 level on the US Dollar Index.
With the curve in both countries looking very flat, I already made the point that I feel we are seeing money flowing into these economies as they take steps to reopen. There is also likely some degree of safety, given how the two countries have faired in flattening their respective ‘curves’.
The Data Agenda
Looking ahead we have a few very big data points coming out today with the FOMC and the latest GDP print.
Looking at GDP first and I think the entire world expects a pretty poor number today. The expectation is for -4.0% for Q1, which is a sharp decline on the prior reading and notably in the red.
Then to the FOMC and we will be looking at not so much any rate movements, but rather the outlook.
With rates widely expected to remain at their current levels, some better questions to ask might be how long will this last?
The main focus of the FOMC has so far been to add liquidity and also confidence to the market. As we’ve seen, the stock market has bounced back strongly and there is hope in the air. Investors will also be keen to hear the Fed’s opinion on how long rates will stay at current levels.
And not to forget oil, on what has been a rough week, we get WTI Crude Oil inventories. There is so much supply pressure that surely we will have to reach breaking point any session now after another red day overnight.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had one winner from three signals over the last 24 hours.
USD/JPY – Active Signal
The USD/JPY is looking very soft at the moment and now that 107.00 has fallen we are short looking for further selling.
SPX – Watching
The SPX tried its hardest to crack into the 2,900 resistance level. But so far the sellers have held it down. As the situation improves day-by-day, I suspect this level could fall.
BTC hasn’t made any really big moves in the last 24 hours as we wait on a test of the key $8,000 level.
As I’ve been saying for a while now, Bitcoin is really moving in-sync with risk assets at the moment and shuold be traded accordingly.