Shorting EUR/GBP, As UK Data Improves

EUR/GBP has been quite bearish since the beginning of this year, after the trade deal between the EU and UK was reached, validating the Brexit deal after all. Tis improved the sentiment for the GBP, which has been quite bullish during this time, while the Euro turned bearish, with EUR/USD falling around 650 pips.

But, the situation reversed this month and the Euro has been retracing higher, with EUR/USD above 1.20 again. As a result, EUR/GBP retraced higher as well, but the retrace might have come to an end, The price reversed down last week and the 50 SMA (yellow) has turned into resistance for this pair now, where we decided to open a sel forex signal.

UK March Employment and Earnings Report

Unemployment Claims

  • March jobless claims change 10.1k vs 86.6k prior
  • Prior 86.6k; revised to 67.3k
  • Claimant count rate 7.3%
  • Prior 7.5%; revised to 7.3%

Unemployment Rate

  • February ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected
  • Prior 5.0%
  • February employment change -73k vs -145k expected
  • Prior -147k

Earnings Data

  • February average weekly earnings +4.5% vs +4.8% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +4.8%
  • February average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.4% vs +4.2% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +4.2%; revised to +4.3%

Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline reading continues to see some volatile jumps as the furlough program makes it tough to really read much into the data, with the February jobless rate also seen easing slightly.

There isn’t much of a takeaway from the report as underlying labour market conditions are still mostly obscured and it is hard to reach much into the numbers.
ONS does note that UK employment rate was estimated at 75.1% – some 1.4% lower than it was a year ago. Adding that annual pay growth continues to strengthen but may be due to a fall in lower-paid jobs as compared to pre-pandemic labour market conditions.
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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