Forex Signals Brief May 26: RBNZ, FOMC, Key Inflation Data, and Nvidia NVDA Earnings in Focus

This week the RBA delivered a rate cut, while RBN is expected to follow this week, while we have the Nvidia earnings as well as the FOMC mee

Skerdian Meta•Monday, May 26, 2025•3 min read

Quick overview

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points, yet the Australian dollar strengthened due to increased risk appetite.
Market anxiety surged after President Trump proposed a 25% tariff on Apple products, causing Apple shares to drop nearly 9% in a week.
Next week will feature significant events including Nvidia earnings, FOMC minutes, and various central bank policy announcements.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $111,000, while Ethereum rallied over 20% following its 'Pectra' upgrade.

Live BTC/USD Chart

BTC/USD

0.0000

MARKETS TREND

TRADE BTC/USD

This week the RBA delivered a rate cut, while RBN is expected to follow this week, while we have the Nvidia earnings as well as the FOMC meeting minutes ahead of us.

Central Bank Moves and Currency Surprises

The week began with a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Despite this easing move, the Australian dollar finished the week stronger, buoyed by broader risk appetite and U.S. dollar softness.

Meanwhile, inflation came in hotter than expected in both Canada and the United Kingdom for April. This was in stark contrast to economic data from the UK and eurozone, where both manufacturing and services sectors showed continued signs of weakness. In the U.S., however, both sectors posted solid growth, underscoring the divergence between economies.

Tariff Threats Hammer Apple and Broader Markets

Market anxiety escalated midweek when U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media to propose a 25% tariff on Apple products not manufactured in the United States. The market responded immediately: Apple shares plunged nearly 9% in just over a week, falling from $213.94 on May 14 to $195.27.

Trump doubled down by announcing a 50% tariff on European Union goods starting June 1, dismissing any chance of a deal. His tough stance mirrored earlier policies toward China, where duties peaked at 145%. Equity markets reacted negatively, with the Dow down 2.47%, S&P 500 falling 2.61%, and Nasdaq losing 2.47% for the week.

Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings, FOMC Minutes, US PCE, RBNZ, Aussie CPI, OPEC JMMC

Next week highlights include Fed Minutes, US PCE, Canada GDP, Tokyo CPI, Australian CPI, RBNZ rate decision, BoK rate decision, the OPEC JMMC and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.

Mon: US Holiday (Memorial Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday)
Tue: NBH Policy Announcement; German GfK (Jun), French Prelim. CPI (May), EZ Consumer Confidence (May), US Durable Goods (Apr), Dallas Fed (May)
Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement, FOMC Minutes (May), Riksbank Financial Stability Report, OPEC JMMC; Australian CPI (Apr), German Unemployment (May), US MBA (w/e 19th May), Richmond Fed (May), Nvidia (NVDA) earnings
Thu: Swiss & Scandinavian Holiday (Ascension Day), BoK & SARB Policy Announcements; US GDP 2nd (Q1), PCE (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 24th May), Pending Home Sales (Apr)
Fri: CBRT Financial Stability Report; Japanese Tokyo CPI (May), German Import Prices (Apr), CPI Prelim. (May), EZ M3 (Apr), US PCE (Apr), Personal Income/Consumption (Apr), Chicago PMI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1)

Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD falling below 1.11, and stock markets continuing upward. The moves weren’t too big, but we opened 37 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Rebounds Amid Market Jitters

As equity markets stumbled, gold saw renewed buying interest. The precious metal climbed from around $3,200 to $3,500, supported by demand at its 50-day moving average. Although bullish momentum paused below the key $3,500 resistance seen in April, sentiment remained positive with gold showing signs of recovering toward new highs. Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.05.25 20:12 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

Dollar-Yen Breaks Norms Amid Shifting FX Dynamics

One of the week’s more notable currency developments was the unusual behavior of USD/JPY. Even as U.S. yields declined, the U.S. dollar appreciated against the yen. The pair rose from 143.40 to 144.31, suggesting a shift in traditional correlations—possibly due to capital flows away from Japan amid global risk rotation.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Sets New All-Time High Above $111K

Cryptocurrencies were the standout performers of the week. Bitcoin surged more than 6%, reaching above $110,000 and setting a new all-time high. This marked its fifth consecutive day of gains, as investors increasingly view crypto as a hedge against U.S. debt concerns and geopolitical instability.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum Tests MAs after Rebound Following Pectra Upgrade

Ethereum also bounced back sharply, rallying over 20% from April lows around $1,475 to near $2,200. Confidence was further boosted by the launch of the “Pectra” upgrade, which enhanced Ethereum’s wallet integration and staking features. The update represents a major milestone, attracting fresh capital from both retail and institutional investors.

ETH/USD – Weekly Chart

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Open a FREE Trading Account

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.