EUR/USD Eyes Breakout as 56.8% Fed Cut Odds Shake Dollar Stability

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways around 1.1376 in early Wednesday Asia trade, with volatility building ahead of high-impact economic reports. The dollar slipped after a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. data releases dented investor confidence and pushed Fed rate cut odds to 56.8% by year-end.

U.S. job openings dropped to 7.19 million in March—the lowest since September 2024—falling short of the 7.5 million forecast. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 86.0 in April, its lowest since the pandemic-era reading in April 2020. The mood shift has created headwinds for the greenback, indirectly boosting demand for the euro.

“The data paints a picture of a cooling U.S. economy,” said a market analyst. “It’s not just about rate cuts anymore—it’s about recession risk.”

Traders Brace for Heavy Eurozone, U.S. Data

Wednesday’s trading session is packed with critical releases from both the eurozone and the United States. These numbers will provide the next directional clues for EUR/USD.

Key Releases to Watch Today:

• Eurozone:

  • German Prelim CPI (0.3% est.)

  • German GDP (0.2% est.)

  • French CPI (0.4% est.)

  • Italian GDP and CPI data

  • Eurozone GDP Flash Estimate (0.2% q/q est.)

• U.S.:

  • ADP Non-Farm Employment (114K est.)

  • Advance GDP (0.2% vs. prior 2.4%)

  • Core PCE Price Index (0.1% est.)

  • Personal Income & Spending

  • Pending Home Sales

This data deluge could redefine rate expectations. If U.S. inflation prints below forecasts while eurozone figures show economic resilience, it could reinforce EUR/USD’s bullish tilt.

EUR/USD Technical Setup: Triangle Break Ahead

On the 2-hour chart, EUR/USD is trapped within a symmetrical triangle with resistance near 1.1425 and support at 1.1329. The 50-period EMA at 1.1381 is acting as a pivot, and the MACD is neutral, indicating traders are waiting for a breakout trigger.

Trade Setup (For All Levels):

• Buy above: 1.1425 (bullish breakout)

• Sell below: 1.1329 (bearish breakdown)

• Upside target: 1.1462

• Downside target: 1.1288

• Stop-loss: 20–30 pips beyond breakout

Why it matters: The triangle shows indecision. A confirmed breakout post-data could spark sharp movement in either direction. Patience is key—let price lead.