Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance at $107,000: Trump-Linked ETF Filing Adds Political Dimension
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady around $105,000 after a recent bounce back from weekend lows. However, technical indicators show that the
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently stable around $105,000 but faces significant resistance between $106,000 and $107,000.
- Recent on-chain signals indicate a decline in Momentum Buyers and an increase in Profit Takers, suggesting a potential market correction.
- The filing of a Bitcoin ETF linked to Truth Social adds a political dimension to the crypto market, highlighting ongoing institutional interest.
- Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin may struggle to reach new highs, with a critical support level at $100,000.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is holding steady around $105,000 after a recent bounce back from weekend lows. However, technical indicators show that the cryptocurrency is facing more and more problems as it gets closer to important resistance levels. The filing of a Bitcoin ETF with the Truth Social brand has also introduced a new political aspect to the crypto market.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis Points to Challenging Territory Ahead
The way Bitcoin is moving right now shows that the market is at a turning point. BTC has had a hard time maintaining up its momentum above this critical level after recovering back 3% from weekend lows to reach $106,000. Technical analysis shows that there is substantial resistance between $106,000 and $107,000 right now. The previous all-time high of $109,000 is also a solid barrier.
The cryptocurrency’s recent rejection from the $106,000-$108,000 supply zone is comparable to what has happened in the past, specifically the rejection on January 31 that caused the price to plummet 27% to $78,000. This pattern illustrates that bears are quite protective of these higher levels, which makes it harder to break out without a lot of buying pressure.
The main support levels are still solid. Material Indicators states that there is around $263 million in bid liquidity, which goes down to $97,750. This solid support structure protects against any possible bad moves, but traders are keeping a close eye on the $100,000 level because it is a psychological level.
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signals Flash Mixed Messages
Blockchain analytics show worrying trends in how investors are acting that could affect Bitcoin’s short-term path. According to Glassnode data, the market is changing a lot. For example, the number of Momentum Buyers (investors who buy during uptrends) is going down quickly, while the number of Profit Takers is going higher. Traders put more value on keeping their money than on making more money, hence this cycle generally happens before local market tops.
One of the most interesting aspects about Bitcoin is how it is spread out: 96% of all Bitcoin is still worth money at prices around $105,000. This suggests that the asset is strong in the long run, but it also means that there are a lot of people who want to sell it. Historical data shows that profit margins this large often happen when the market corrects itself, as investors try to make money off their profits.
Glassnode argues that even if there are a lot of warning signs, the market isn’t in the “euphoric” state that generally happens when a big cycle peak happens. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) illustrates that people are making money, but not as much as they did when the bull markets were at their best.
Trump-Linked Bitcoin ETF Filing Adds Political Complexity
Yorkville America Digital, a partner of Trump Media & Technology Group, filed a Truth Social Bitcoin ETF. This was surprising news for the bitcoin industry. This is another step in the growth of former President Trump’s crypto business, which already includes NFT collections, memecoins, and mining operations.
The proposed ETF would trade on NYSE Arca and track the price of Bitcoin. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock would primarily control the market. It has about $69 billion in assets. The SEC will start looking into the submission, which may take up to 240 days. It also illustrates that more and more people are using Bitcoin investment vehicles.
This political side of things makes Bitcoin’s story more challenging, especially when critics are worried about possible conflicts of interest. On the other side, the filing shows that institutions are still interested in Bitcoin, which could boost the asset class in the long run.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Market Outlook
Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin will face challenges in the future. To indicate that positive momentum is back, the cryptocurrency has to stay over $107,000. After that, it will hit additional resistance at $107,800 and then at its previous high of $109,000. If these levels don’t hold, it might lead to another plunge toward the $100,000 psychological support level.
The market right now makes it more likely that Bitcoin will continue in a range or suffer a slight correction in the near future than that it will hit new all-time highs. Prices can’t go up very much since there are a lot of technological problems, a lot of people taking profits, and a lot of supply in profit.
But the solid bid support structure and continuous institutional interest, as seen by the Truth Social ETF registration, suggest that any corrections may not be very substantial. It appears like a good short-term target range is between $97,000 and $107,000, with the $100,000 level being a crucial psychological and technical battleground.
Traders should pay special attention to volume patterns and whale activity because any large event could impact the way the market functions right away. We should know in the next few days if Bitcoin can stay above $106,000 or if it will have to sink back to $100,000.
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