Oil Jumps 2% to $75.90 as U.S. Strikes Iran—WTI Eyes $77.50 if Support Holds

On Monday, the WTI crude oil climbed over 2%, testing $75.90 per barrel, their highest level since January. The move came after...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Monday, June 23, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Monday, June 23, 2025

Quick overview

WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $75.90 per barrel, the highest since January, following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Traders are concerned about potential Iranian retaliation that could disrupt global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite a slight pullback, the bullish trend remains intact, with key support levels around $74.13 and $73.18.
Geopolitical tensions are expected to drive oil prices more than technical indicators in the near future.

On Monday, the WTI crude oil climbed over 2%, testing $75.90 per barrel, their highest level since January. The move came after the U.S. launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, intensifying geopolitical tension in the world’s most sensitive oil corridor.

Traders are increasingly pricing in the risk that Iran may retaliate by disrupting global oil flows. Iran’s parliament voted to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries nearly 20% of global crude supply.

While the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, even the prospect of closure has rattled energy markets.

The possibility of military escalation in a region that holds more than half the world’s proven oil reserves has added a significant geopolitical premium to oil prices, which could rise further if supply risks intensify.

Price Action Cools, But Uptrend Still Intact

Technically, crude oil pulled back slightly after rejecting at $76.11, a key resistance level that capped price action late last week. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $74.64, down 0.82% on the day, as profit-taking set in.

Still, the chart structure remains bullish. An ascending trendline extending from the June 14 low intersects the price around $74.13–$73.18, creating a confluence zone with the 50-period EMA—a widely watched dynamic support level. If buyers defend this zone, momentum could reaccelerate toward $77.54 and $79.02.

OIL Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — OIL Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

However, short-term indicators are flashing caution. The MACD histogram has flattened, and the MACD line is nearing a bearish crossover, suggesting fading bullish momentum. A decisive break below $73.18 could flip sentiment and trigger a retreat toward $72.60 or even $71.31.

Key Technical Levels to Monitor

Resistance:

$76.11 – Immediate resistance
$77.54 – Mid-March swing high
$79.02 – Year-to-date top

Support:

$74.13 – Trendline support
$73.18 – 50-period EMA
$72.60 – Previous breakout level
$71.31 – Structural support

As long as price is above the trendline and 50 EMA, the bias is bullish. But the narrative will be driven more by geopolitics than technicals.

Conclusion:

With Middle East tensions hot and oil transport routes at risk, WTI crude’s next move is dependent on both chart and diplomacy. A bounce from here could take price to $77+, but a break would mean cooling off in a hot market.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.