Bitcoin Surges Past $106K Amid Mixed Signals: Short Liquidations Drive Rally While Retail Activity Surges
Bitcoin has shown that it can bounce back by rising beyond $106,000. This is a 1.6% increase in the previous 24 hours and a recovery from
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has rebounded to over $106,000, marking a 1.6% increase in 24 hours and a recovery from weekend lows of $98,300.
- The Coinbase Premium Index indicates strong purchasing activity among US investors, while retail trading on Binance has reached a two-year peak.
- Recent price movements were largely driven by short liquidations rather than new bullish positions, suggesting a potential market fatigue.
- The near-term outlook suggests Bitcoin may struggle to break through the $108,500-$113,000 range, with key support levels at $103,000 and $100,000.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has shown that it can bounce back by rising beyond $106,000. This is a 1.6% increase in the previous 24 hours and a recovery from weekend lows of about $98,300. This extraordinary 6.7% comeback has happened at the same time as big changes in the market that show both bullish momentum and caution among traders.
The Coinbase Premium Index hit its second-highest level of 2025 on Monday. This shows that US-based investors are still purchasing. The index stayed positive for much of June, therefore this premium shows the difference in price between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance. The sustained premium is in line with favorable spot ETF flows. Research shows that a 0.27 correlation links ETF inflows from the previous day to price rises the next day.
Bitcoin’s Retail Trading Activity Reaches Two-Year Peak on Binance
While institutional investors are feeling good about Coinbase’s premiums, retail trading has skyrocketed on Binance. Data from the exchange shows that retail involvement is at its greatest level in two years, with a big jump in deposits of 0 to 1 BTC. This big increase in small-holder activity makes it look like they are actively trading instead of just building up their holdings.
According to CryptoQuant researcher Maartunn, these inflows usually mean that people want to trade, not hang onto their coins for a long time. “The move to deposit BTC on Binance usually means that someone wants to trade, not hold,” Maartunn said. This suggests that ordinary investors may be ahead of institutional investors for once.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Short Covering Fuels Rally Amid Declining Open Interest
The latest rise to $105,000 was mostly due to short liquidations, not new bullish positions. During the rise, open interest fell by 10%, which means that the price movement was caused by short sellers having to buy instead of fresh long positions coming into the market.
CoinGlass says that during the bounce, $359 million in liquidations happened, with 73.7% ($371 million) of those coming from short holdings. As Bitcoin burst through important resistance levels, bearish traders had to buy back their positions, which caused this short squeeze.
The total financing rate is going up even while open interest is only growing a little. This could mean that over-leveraged long positions are paying shorts, which could mean that the market is getting tired. Bitcoin needs more buying volume and open interest to go up and stay up, which will show that there is real demand.
Bitcoin Price Predictions and Key Levels to Watch
- Bullish Scenario: If the price stays above the “golden line” at $103,000, it could start to rise again toward the $108,500 resistance level. Doctor Profit, a technical expert, says that there are big liquidity clusters around $113,000, where short liquidations could speed up price appreciation. If it breaks over this level with volume confirmation, it might go for new all-time highs.
- Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin can’t hold the $103,000 support, it might drop back to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap at $92,000, which would be a drop of almost 12% from where it is now. Doctor Profit says that the worst-case scenario may see corrections go as low as $82,000 to $84,000.
The MACD crossing on daily charts and the collapse of the $104,000 barrier are two important technical indications. If these levels aren’t soon recaptured, they could mean negative momentum.
Market Structure Shift: From Trading to Accumulation
Long-term on-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders are acting in a very different way. According to CryptoQuant researcher Darkfost, exchange deposits have dropped a lot since 2021. The number of daily depositing addresses has dropped from a height of 180,000 to barely 37,000 now.
This drop shows how Bitcoin has changed from a trading tool to an asset that stores value, thanks to the rise of ETFs and institutional treasury methods. The lower number of trades means that investors are hanging onto their assets more tightly, which could create supply problems that could lead to higher prices.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Downside Risks
Bitcoin is currently worth more than $106,000, which shows a delicate balance between institutions buying it and ordinary investors taking profits. The Coinbase premium shows that institutions are still interested, while the Binance inflows show that retail traders are still engaged.
- Near-term outlook (1-4 weeks): Bitcoin will have trouble breaking through the $108,500-$113,000 range, where liquidity clusters might either speed up breakouts or cause rejections. The golden line at $103,000 and the psychological level at $100,000 are both levels of support.
- Medium-term outlook (1-3 months): The CME gap around $92,000 is a big technical goal that may need to be filled before the market can keep going up. But better geopolitical situations and possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve might help prices go up.
The way the market is set up right now makes it more probable that Bitcoin will stay between $100,000 and $110,000 before the next big move in one side or the other. The outcome will probably depend on institutional ETF flows and other macroeconomic factors.
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