WTI Crude Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Hike, $3.8B Stock Build Put $64–$70 in Play

WTI holds $66.47 as OPEC+ plans another output hike and U.S. stockpiles rise 3.8M barrels. Will oil reclaim $70 or slip below trendline supp

Written by: Arslan Butt • Sunday, July 6, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, July 6, 2025

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Hike, $3.8B Stock Build Put $64–$70 in Play

Quick overview

WTI holds $66.47 as OPEC+ plans another output hike and U.S. stockpiles rise 3.8M barrels. Will oil reclaim $70 or slip below trendline support this week?

Oil is stuck in consolidation at $66.47 as traders wait for the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday. The cartel is expected to add 411,000 bpd for August, its 4th consecutive increase. That will bring their output back to over 2.2 million bpd just as non-OPEC supply grows and demand cools.

According to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, OPEC+ is trying to punish quota violators and high-cost producers but this could oversupply the market short-term.

Meanwhile, political headlines are back. President Trump’s tariff threats (20%–30% on 10 countries at a time) will keep oil bulls cautious if risk appetite fades across the broader markets.

Inventory Build and Technicals: Below $68.94

Last week’s 3.8 million barrel build in US commercial crude stocks was a surprise during a draw-heavy season. The EIA report added to the concern that the supply/demand balance is against the bulls despite the bounce from $64.43 trendline support.

Technically, WTI is in a symmetrical structure with upside capped by the 100-SMA ($68.76) and downside protected by the 50-SMA ($65.68) and the rising trendline from early May.

Immediate Resistance: $67.55 → $68.94 → $70.43
Key Support Levels: $65.68 → $64.43 → $62.75
50-SMA: Dynamic support at $65.68
100-SMA: Ceiling at $68.76

The MACD is flat with no clear bias – a breakout could be coming.

Weekly Trade Scenarios: Cautious but Reactive

With macro risk building and oil in a tight technical zone, the playbook for the week is simple: react to the breakout, don’t anticipate it.

Crude Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Bullish Scenario:

Entry: Above $67.55
Targets: $68.94 → $70.43
Stop-loss: Below $65.60

Bearish Scenario:

Entry: Below $64.40
Targets: $62.75 → $61.07
Stop-loss: Above $66.00

Outlook: Range Until Catalyst

Unless OPEC+ surprises or Trump’s tariffs trigger panic, WTI crude will be range bound between $64 and $68. Above $68.94 and the bulls are back in control. Below $64 and stops will get hit fast.

Bottom line: This week is less about forecasting and more about waiting. Keep your chart clean, let the price break first and don’t get caught fading the fundamentals. The technicals are tight. The fundamentals are about to speak.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.