Bitcoin Consolidates Above $115K, On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Breakout Despite 18-Day Range
Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading above the important $115,000 support level, although it has dropped almost 2% in the last 24 hours. The lead
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above the $115,000 support level, despite a nearly 2% drop in the last 24 hours.
- Recent on-chain metrics indicate increasing institutional adoption, with more companies purchasing Bitcoin treasury assets.
- New investor activity remains low at 30%, suggesting potential for market growth before reaching overheated levels.
- Regulatory clarity and rising spot Bitcoin ETF inflows signal a strong foundation for future cryptocurrency investment.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is still trading above the important $115,000 support level, although it has dropped almost 2% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency is still in an 18-day consolidation phase between $115,000 and $121,000. Even if the Federal Reserve’s policy stance has caused a lot of recent volatility, many technical and on-chain signs point to a big breakout happening soon.
FOMC Minutes Trigger Liquidity Hunt, but Range Remains Intact
The sudden drop in prices on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released its FOMC minutes formed what Hyblock Capital analysts called a “classic indecision candle” with long wicks on both sides. The bid-ask ratio at 10% orderbook depth went below zero, making it more likely that the price would test the liquidation level of $115,883. But the fact that BTC can stay inside its established trading range shows that the market is strong.
Binance and Bybit’s current liquidation data shows that risk levels have not altered. Short liquidations are speeding up beyond $120,000, while long positions are at risk below $115,000. The aggregate order book data shows that there are big sell walls at $121,100 and big bid support at $111,000. These levels make it evident where the next move will go.
Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Paint Bullish Long-Term Picture
Even if prices have recently dropped, a number of basic signs point to more institutions adopting the technology. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, said that the number of corporations buying Bitcoin treasury has gone up a lot in the last six weeks, with more than three companies buying Bitcoin every day. His treasury indicators reveal a very high 100:1 ratio of buyers to sellers per month, which means that institutions are buying a lot.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently 2.2 and is getting closer to its 365-day moving average. CoinCare, an analyst at CryptoQuant, says that historical patterns show that when MVRV gets close to its long-term normal, Bitcoin usually bounces back toward overpriced area, often with big price increases.
New Investor Activity Signals Healthy Bull Market Phase
According to investor dominance measurements, new investor participation is only 30%, which is a lot lower than the overheated levels of 64% and 72% that were recorded during earlier local peaks in March and December 2024. This means that the market has a lot of opportunity to develop before it becomes too happy.
Long-term holders are currently selling at a pace of 0.3, which means that coins held for three years or more are being sold without causing big price drops. AxelAdlerJr, a CryptoQuant analyst, says that this change is “a healthy late bull cycle phase, when new money is coming in but old players have not yet switched to mass selling.”
Regulatory Clarity Provides Foundation for Growth
The White House crypto study and SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ address on American leadership in digital finance are two recent policy changes that have made the rules for digital finance quite apparent. These changes may not have a big effect on prices right away, but they lay the groundwork for more institutions to use cryptocurrencies and give people more confidence to invest in them.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have also started to go up again, with a total of $641.3 million in net inflows since July 23, even though the price has been going up and down a lot lately. This ongoing interest from institutions shows that demand is still strong.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Critical Levels to Watch
Technical analysis points to two main possibilities for Bitcoin’s next big rise. If selling pressure keeps up, it looks like the price will drop to the $115,000-$111,000 range to absorb long liquidity. The best-case scenario would be heavy bidding at $111,000, which would create a lot of volume and allow the price to rise to $116,000.
Bitcoin needs to close above the $120,000 resistance level every day and have a positive cumulative volume delta (CVD) in both the spot and perpetual futures markets for a sustained breakout. The fact that technical indications are coming together, institutions are buying a lot of Bitcoin, and regulations are becoming clearer all point to a big range extension in the next few weeks.
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