Bitcoin Faces $113K Support Test Amid Regulatory Concerns and Macro Headwinds
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently worth more than $113,000, which is a drop of more than 2% in the last 24 hours. This is the first big test for
Quick overview
- Bitcoin's price has dropped over 2% to more than $113,000 after reaching an all-time high of $124,176, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current bull run.
- The SEC's investigation into Alt5 Sigma has triggered market volatility, highlighting ongoing regulatory risks in the cryptocurrency sector.
- Despite the recent price dip, Bitcoin whales have been accumulating, indicating strong underlying demand and potential for future price recovery.
- Technical analysis suggests that $112,000 may serve as a crucial support level, with the potential for Bitcoin to rise back to $120,000 if it maintains this support.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is currently worth more than $113,000, which is a drop of more than 2% in the last 24 hours. This is the first big test for the cryptocurrency below this important psychological barrier in more than two weeks. The fall happened after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $124,176 on Thursday. This raised worries about how long the current bull run can last given the growing macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainties.
SEC Investigation Triggers Market Volatility
The sell-off got worse after news that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is looking into fraud and stock manipulation at Alt5 Sigma. This company recently teamed up with President Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial in a $1.5 billion agreement. World Liberty Financial, which calls Trump a “co-founder emeritus,” raised over $550 million through public token sales and is now a DeFi and stablecoin platform.
Because of the high-profile nature of the relationship, this regulatory scrutiny has made the market very unclear. The inquiry could have effects that reach beyond the people directly involved. It shows that there are still regulatory dangers in the cryptocurrency business that could affect how institutions adopt it and how investors feel about it.
Macroeconomic Pressures Weigh on Risk Assets
Bitcoin’s price dip happened at the same time as the rest of the market’s, which included a 1.5% loss in the Nasdaq 100 after MIT NANDA’s AI deployment research didn’t meet expectations. The survey, which included 150 interviews with businesses and 300 public AI deployments, found that 95% of organizations did not see quick revenue growth from AI pilot programs. This made people less interested in technology equities.
New US import taxes added more stress, with 50% charges on 407 products that contained aluminum and steel. These trade policy changes have made people worry about supply chain problems and inflationary pressures. As a result, UBS has boosted its gold price projection to $3,700 by September 2026, which shows that more people are looking for other ways to hold money.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Extreme Fear but Historical Precedent for Recovery
The 30-day delta skew (put-call) for Bitcoin options has risen to 12%, the highest level in more than four months. This means that the market is quite scared. This number, which usually ranges from -6% to +6% in neutral conditions, shows that institutional investors are more interested in downside protection.
But based on past trends, this extremely negative feeling could mean a big chance for a rebound. On April 7, when Bitcoin fell below $74,500, there was a similar surge in delta skew to 13%. Those who took the risk at that time made 40% more money in the next month, when Bitcoin rose to $104,150 on May 8.
BTC Whale Accumulation Suggests Strong Underlying Demand
Santiment’s on-chain data shows that Bitcoin sharks and whales (those who own 10 to 10,000 BTC) have been buying up Bitcoin during the current price drop. Since August 13th, these big investors have bought more than 20,000 BTC, which is worth $2.3 billion. Since March 22nd, they have bought a total of 225,320 BTC, which is worth $26.1 billion.
This pattern of accumulation is really important because during the previous five years, there has been a strong link between how large holders act and how prices move in the future. The fact that smart investors keep buying Bitcoin shows that they believe in its long-term growth, even though it is volatile in the short term.
Bitcoin Price Prediction and Outlook
According to technical analysis, $112,000 could be an important support level in the near future. The fact that whales are buying Bitcoin, that extreme options skew suggests that Bitcoin is oversold, and that Bitcoin has been able to stay strong throughout similar anxiety events in the past all reinforce the idea that the present correction may not last long.
In the long run, the macroeconomic situation is still good for Bitcoin’s value. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates rapidly (which could lead to inflation and a weaker dollar) or keeps the same policy (which could lead to more budgetary pressure), either way, Bitcoin could end up being a good store of wealth and a way to protect against systemic threats.
The cryptocurrency looks like it will do well in the changing monetary environment, as inflation expectations are rising no matter what the Fed decides to do. There will probably still be short-term price swings, especially near the $112,000-$113,000 support zone, but the core reasons for Bitcoin’s bull market are still in place.
Bitcoin could rise back up to the $120,000 mark in the next few weeks if it stays above $112,000, based on the present technical setup and on-chain accumulation trends. But investors should still be careful about changes in the law and the overall market that could affect short-term price movements.
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