Milei Implodes: Argentine Stocks Plunge 20% and Country Risk Reaches 1.100 bps
The S&P Merval in pesos dropped 13.3% to 1,732,923.77 points, while in dollar terms it plunged 16.4% to 1,201.71.
Quick overview
- Argentine assets experienced a significant selloff, with stocks plunging up to 24% following La Libertad Avanza's defeat in the Buenos Aires provincial elections.
- The S&P Merval index dropped 13.3% in pesos and 16.4% in dollar terms, reaching its lowest level in 13 months.
- Sovereign dollar bonds also faced heavy losses, with the Bonar 2041 leading the decline at 10.6%.
- J.P. Morgan warned that the Peronist victory could indicate a prolonged political risk premium for Argentina.
After La Libertad Avanza’s heavy defeat in Buenos Aires province, Argentine assets collapsed across the board: stocks plunged as much as 24%, dollar bonds sank up to 10%, and country risk hit its highest level in nearly a year.
Argentine assets suffered one of their sharpest selloffs in recent memory on Monday, with losses of up to 24%, following the resounding defeat of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) in the Buenos Aires provincial legislative elections. While markets had not ruled out a Peronist victory, the wide margin—more than 13 percentage points—sparked a massive selloff of stocks and bonds from start to finish, pushing country risk close to 1,100 basis points.
Argentine shares trading in New York recorded unusually steep losses of over 24%. Banks led the declines, as weak balance sheets had already put pressure on the sector: BBVA tumbled 24.4%, Grupo Supervielle 24%, Grupo Financiero Galicia 23.6%, and Banco Macro 23.5%.
The S&P Merval in pesos dropped 13.3% to 1,732,923.77 points, while in dollar terms it plunged 16.4% to 1,201.71—the lowest level in 13 months. Leading losers in the local market mirrored the ADRs: Grupo Supervielle (-21.2%), Banco Macro (-20.1%), Galicia (-20.1%), and BBVA (-20%).
Year to date, Argentine stocks have accumulated losses of up to 70% locally, while ADRs in New York have fallen as much as 60%. Supervielle leads the declines, alongside Globant, which is down 70% in 2025.
U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan warned that the Peronist win in Buenos Aires province is “a signal that Argentina’s political risk premium could extend over time.”
Dollar Bonds and Country Risk
Sovereign bonds denominated in dollars also came under heavy pressure, with double-digit losses. The Bonar 2041 led the slump, dropping 10.6%, followed by the Bonar 2038 (-10.1%). The Bonar 2035 fell 9.6%, while the Global 2038 dropped 9.1%.
As a result, Argentina’s country risk index, measured by J.P. Morgan, approached 1,100 basis points, according to market estimates.
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