Bitcoin Holds $112K Amid Mixed Signals: Fresh Wallet Demand Battles Late-Cycle Warning Signs
Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading consistently over $112,000, indicating strength after Monday's huge $1.62 billion long liquidation event
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is trading above $112,000, showing resilience after a significant liquidation event, but market signals remain mixed.
- Recent data indicates a surge in new Bitcoin holders, with over 73,000 BTC entering newly created wallets, suggesting increased demand.
- Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with potential price targets between $105,000 and $115,000.
- Despite strong demand metrics, concerns about the market's late-cycle position and underlying fragility persist.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is still trading consistently over $112,000, indicating strength after Monday’s huge $1.62 billion long liquidation event, which was the biggest single-day wipeout of 2025. It looks like the cryptocurrency is starting to stabilize, but contradicting signals on the blockchain make it hard to tell how the market is moving, which could affect Bitcoin’s next big move.
Massive Capital Influx from New Market Participants
Recent data from CryptoQuant shows that a lot of new people are holding Bitcoin. More than 73,000 BTC have gone into wallets that are less than a month old. This is a clear move into positive territory for the Net Position Change (NPC) of Bitcoin’s youngest group, which means that new institutional and retail demand is coming into the market.
The rise isn’t just for new investors; short-term holders (those who have held BTC for less than six months) have also added 159,098 BTC. This aggressive buying is effectively soaking up coins that long-term investors are selling, which is about 145,000 BTC, a common pattern during bull market profit-taking periods.
“The current situation, where long-term investors are taking profits and new buyers are coming in with excitement, is a classic sign of a bull market that is getting stronger,” says CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk. This strong demand structure across diverse groups of investors implies that the market is still strong, even though it has been volatile recently.
BTC/USD Technical Consolidation Points to Critical Juncture
Analysts say that Bitcoin’s current price movement is a sign of required consolidation after a lot of volatility. Uniswap Gems, a crypto trader, says that the market is going through “intraday chop” that traders may expect to last for 2 to 3 days as they process the recent big changes.
The technical picture gives us clear hints about where Bitcoin will go next. If $113,000 turns into support, it might lead to a retest of $115,000, which could pave the stage for fresh all-time highs. If the current levels aren’t kept, though, there might be a deeper decline toward $105,000-$106,000, where big liquidation clusters are waiting.
Hyblock data shows that sellers are still in charge of short-term price action, even though there is buying activity. The aggregate cumulative volume delta demonstrates that selling pressure is still strong. This makes for a fragile balance in which leverage placement is key to figuring out the immediate path.
Late-Cycle Warnings Cloud Bullish Fundamentals
Glassnode research presents key worries regarding Bitcoin’s current cycle position, even while demand metrics are looking good. The analytics tool points to a number of signs that BTC has entered the “historically late phase” of its bull market cycle.
Bitcoin’s circulating supply has been above the +1 standard deviation profit range for 273 days in a row, which is the second-longest streak on record. Long-term holders have already made more money than in almost all previous cycles. This has made more people want to sell, which is similar to what happened at past market peaks.
But history gives us some hope. In the past, cycles that looked like this one usually hit new all-time highs within two to three months after reaching this point. If this trend continues, Bitcoin might break its record high of $124,000 by the end of 2025.
Market Structure Reveals Underlying Fragility
Bitcoin may seem stable on the surface, but a closer look at the market shows some worrying fundamental issues. Charts of USDT domination show signs of a possible breakout that might lead to a drop in the value of other cryptocurrencies, which has made some traders more wary.
Even though there was a recent pullback, exchange inflows are still high, which could mean that selling pressure will persist. Also, the present rise doesn’t have a lot of whales involved; it’s mostly retail and smaller institutional purchasers that are driving the momentum.
Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are getting stronger all the time, and activity recently hit new highs for 2025. This gives the network a strong base for long-term growth, even while there are short-term worries.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Navigating the $105K-$115K Range
Technical and on-chain studies indicate to Bitcoin being at a crucial crossroads in the next several weeks. New demand absorption, technical consolidation needs, and late-cycle dynamics all come together to make a complicated environment where both big gains and big losses are still possible.
Short-term price targets show that the price will probably stay between $105,000 and $115,000, with $113,000 being the most important key. If Bitcoin can hold its present levels and keep getting new wallets, it could reach new all-time highs in the next two to three months.
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