Quick overview

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Oil prices increased slightly, easing traders’ concerns about a significant rise following OPEC+’s agreement to a moderate production increase.

 

Brent crude rose just above $65 per barrel after a substantial 8% drop the previous week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, approved an increase of 137,000 barrels per day on Sunday, which was considerably less than the higher amounts that had been anticipated.

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the decision was “much below what had been feared ahead of the weekend meeting.” However, last week’s decline was only partially reversed by this decision, and sentiment was affected by ongoing concerns about oversupply projected into 2026.

 

On Monday, Saudi Arabia did not change the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia. While this was less than the 30-cent increase per barrel expected according to a Bloomberg survey of traders and refiners, some market participants had anticipated a price cut due to increased supplies following last week’s drop in Middle Eastern oil prices. Concerns about global production outpacing demand in the coming months have contributed to a year-to-date decline in crude prices. Many Wall Street banks forecast lower prices, and the International Energy Agency has predicted a record surplus for 2026.

 

Despite earlier disagreements between co-leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia, the decision by OPEC+ was reached. According to two sources, Moscow had supported a measure to help stabilize prices before the brief nine-minute meeting. However, Riyadh, which is more focused on market share, still preferred a larger production increase. Over recent quarters, OPEC+ has gradually eased supply restrictions.