Bitcoin’s Critical Test at $109K as Big Tech Turbulence and On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Correction
Bitcoin's ability to stay over $109,000 hides worries that are mounting as technical signs hint to a possible drop, and Big Tech's AI spends
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $109,000 but faces potential downward pressure due to technical indicators and market concerns.
- The cryptocurrency's stability is threatened by weak performance in the tech sector, particularly among major companies investing heavily in AI.
- Key support levels for Bitcoin are at $103,800, with further risks if it drops below $100,000, potentially leading to a significant correction.
- To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin must consistently close above the $113,100 short-term holder Realized Price.
Bitcoin’s ability to stay over $109,000 hides worries that are mounting as technical signs hint to a possible drop, and Big Tech’s AI expenditure doubts shake markets that are linked to it.
Bitcoin Price Holds Ground Amid Mounting Pressures
Bitcoin BTC/USD is currently trading above $109,000. It has been quite stable over the previous 24 hours, even if the market as a whole is having problems. But this quiet may not be real, as a number of technical and fundamental reasons point to the likelihood that the cryptocurrency will have a hard time staying at its present levels.
The digital asset has been very volatile lately, plunging to an intraday low of $106,800 during Thursday’s session. This is because traditional equities markets are also weak. Even if big favorable events including a Federal Reserve rate decrease, the end of quantitative tightening, and progress in US-China trade talks have all happened, Bitcoin’s price has still gone down. This makes many wonder what it would take to make Bitcoin move up.
Big Tech Sector Contagion: AI Bubble Concerns Spread to Crypto
Bitcoin is having a hard time gaining traction at the same time when major technology equities, especially the “Magnificent Seven,” are not doing well. Shares of Meta and Microsoft fell 10% and 3%, respectively, even though their third-quarter earnings were stronger than predicted. The problem? Investors are worried about huge investments in AI infrastructure.
Meta’s announcement of $70–72 billion in AI-related CAPEX and Alphabet’s estimated $93 billion spend have raised fears that the AI market could be in a speculative bubble. This doubt has spread to risk assets, like Bitcoin, which is still closely linked to tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq when the market is stressed.
The fact that Bitcoin and the stock market both fell at the same time shows that many still see the cryptocurrency as a risky investment that could be affected by changes in the mood of traditional finance.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Multiple Support Levels Under Threat
The liquidation heatmap from Hyblock shows immediate negative objectives that might make selling pressure rise. The most important short-term support level is at $103,800, where there are a lot of liquidity clusters. If this level doesn’t hold, longer-term liquidation data shows that the next big support zones are around $100,500 and $98,600.
Bulls are more worried about Bitcoin’s problems with the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price, which is currently at $113,100. This number shows the average cost basis for anyone who bought BTC in the last 155 days. It has also been a key dividing line between bullish and bearish market formations in the past.
Bitcoin briefly got back to this level during its latest rise, but it has now dropped back below it. Glassnode’s analysis shows that the cryptocurrency has not been able to end a weekly candle above this level for two weeks in a row, which makes the danger of more losses higher.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path of Least Resistance Points Lower
Based on the current state of the market and the way people feel about Bitcoin, it looks like the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is definitely bearish in the short term. The short-term goal is $103,800, and there is a good chance that the price will test the important $100,000 level in the next few days or weeks.
If Bitcoin goes below $100,000, the next important support level on the blockchain is the Active Realized Price of $88,000, which is the cost basis of supply that is currently being used. This kind of correction would mean a big drop of 19% from where we are now, but it would be in line with how Bitcoin has behaved in the past throughout bull market cycles.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has to decisively retake and stay above the $113,100 STH Realized Price level in order to regain bullish momentum. Ideally, weekly candles should close above this level to show that strength has returned.
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