Could the Crypto Market Sentiment Improve in November and Lead to a Bull Run in 2026?
The cryptocurrency market is going through one of its most scary times in a long time, but experts say that this negativity could actually
Quick overview
- The cryptocurrency market is experiencing extreme fear, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hitting an all-time low of 15.
- Experts believe that the current negativity could lead to a significant rally as weak hands exit and strong holders accumulate.
- Analysts predict that 2026 may be a breakthrough year for crypto, despite the lack of a year-end rally in 2025.
- There is a noticeable divide between crypto-native retail investors, who are largely disengaged, and TradFi retail investors, who continue to show interest.
The cryptocurrency market is going through one of its most scary times in a long time, but experts say that this negativity could actually lead to a big rally in the next few months.
Crypto Market Sentiment Hits Multi-Year Lows
The mood of the market has dropped to levels not seen since the worst of the bear market in 2022. This week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit an all-time low of 15 out of 100, the lowest level since March. Social media commentary mirrors this uncertainty, with Bitcoin debates evenly split between positive and pessimistic views, while XRP sentiment has reached one of its most worrisome periods of 2025, with less than half of social media comments expressing confidence.
Joe Consorti, who is in charge of Bitcoin growth at Horizon, said that the way traders feel right now is like how the market felt in 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $18,000, which is much lower than the current values of over $100,000.
Weak Hands Exit as Strong Holders Accumulate
Analytics firm Santiment says that worsening mood could be “good news for the patient,” which could lead to an unexpected rally. The company’s research shows that when masses turn against big cryptocurrencies, markets often reach a point when short-term speculators give up and long-term holders take over.
“Once retail sells off, key stakeholders scoop up the dropped coins and pump prices,” Santiment said. “It’s not a question of if, but when this will happen again.”
Samson Mow, the founder of the Bitcoin infrastructure business Jan3, agreed with this view. He said that recent sellers were mostly “newish buyers” from the last 12 to 18 months who were taking profits because they were afraid of the cycle peak. At the same time, holders who are sure of their decision are buying more amid the dip. Mow said, “These people are not buying Bitcoin for the right reasons; they are just following the news.”
2026 Projected as Breakthrough Year for Crypto
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is more sure than ever that 2026 will be the actual bull year for crypto, especially because the projected spike in late 2025 hasn’t happened yet. This delay messes with the usual four-year cycle that would have pointed to 2026 as the start of a bear market.
“The biggest risk was that we would rip into the end of 2025 and then get a pullback,” Hougan told Cointelegraph at the Bridge conference in New York. He thinks that the lack of a year-end rally means that 2026 will have a lot of room to grow.
Hougan pointed out a few key tailwinds that are still in place: institutional investment momentum, progress in regulation, the use of stablecoins, and more interest in tokenization. He also said that Uniswap’s recent proposal to change fees could be a trigger that brings decentralized finance protocols back to life.
Tale of Two Retail Markets
The way the market is right now shows a clear split between different kinds of ordinary investors. “Crypto-native retail” investors, those who got in early and survived the FTX crash, the ups and downs of memecoins, and the lack of the expected altcoin season, seem tired and mostly out of the game.
“TradFi retail” investors, on the other hand, are still quite interested in crypto. These are people who work in traditional finance and are getting into crypto through spot exchange-traded funds. This retail sector that is close to institutions has brought in a steady stream of ETF money over the past two years. This suggests that new people are entering the market even as veterans leave.
Analysts agree that the current degree of concern is traditionally a sign of big market moves, but it’s still unclear when that move will happen—whether it will be in weeks or months.
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