Ethereum Struggles at $3,200 as Whale Accumulation Intensifies Amid Network Fee Decline
Ethereum (ETH) is trading close to $3,200 after dropping around 6% in the last 24 hours. This is part of a long-term battle to get back to
Quick overview
- Ethereum is currently trading around $3,200 after a 6% drop, struggling to regain the $4,000 level last seen in late October.
- Despite bearish price action, significant whale activity indicates confidence in a potential recovery, with one whale purchasing over $1.33 billion worth of ETH.
- Ethereum's price is testing critical support levels, with a need to close above $3,650 to target $3,900–$4,000, while a drop below $3,400 could lead to further declines.
- For a recovery to $4,000, Ethereum must increase blockchain activity, raise network fees, clarify the Fusaka update benefits, and see strategic reserve inflows.
Ethereum ETH/USD is trading close to $3,200 after dropping around 6% in the last 24 hours. This is part of a long-term battle to get back to the psychologically important $4,000 level, which was last hit in late October. Even while there is a lot of selling pressure and technical momentum is slowing down, on-chain data tells a different story: big whales are still buying aggressively, which suggests that smart money thinks a big recovery is coming.
ETH Whale Activity Contradicts Bearish Price Action
ETH is under a lot of pressure to go down, but big holders are getting ready for a rebound. Since early November, the well-known Ethereum whale “66kETHBorrow” has become one of the most active buyers, buying 385,718 ETH worth over $1.33 billion. This whale borrowed another $120 million USDT from Aave and sent it to Binance, which is a clear hint that they are getting ready to buy more.
This leveraged buying approach shows a lot of faith in Ethereum’s medium-term future, but it is also very risky. If ETH doesn’t stay above $3,400–$3,500, liquidation pressure could make the market even more volatile. Still, the size and length of these purchases signal that institutional investors are getting ready for a possible big rebound phase by taking advantage of what they see as good entry points.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Long-Term Support
The daily chart shows that Ethereum is holding steady above the $3,450–$3,500 zone, and the price is testing the 200-day moving average, which is an important long-term support level. ETH seems to be stabilizing after weeks of steady selling, but it hasn’t been able to get back above the 50-day moving average, which is currently at $3,700.
Recent candlestick patterns imply that trading ranges are getting narrower and volume is going down. This is frequently a hint of equilibrium before a possible breakout. For bulls to be sure that the trend has changed, ETH needs to close above $3,650, which would open the way to $3,900–$4,000, where the next big resistance cluster sits.
If Ethereum loses the $3,400 support zone, the next big region of interest is around $3,100, which is a psychological barrier where buyers have previously shown up. This level is in line with prior response lows and could be the last place to buy before a big rally.
Ethereum Network Fundamentals Weigh on Price Performance
Fundamental headwinds are still putting pressure on ETH’s value, in addition to technical issues. Since hitting $70 million per week in late 2024, Ethereum network costs have dropped by 88%. This has a direct effect on staking yields and investment returns. This big dip is a sign of a bigger problem with on-chain activity, as transactions have dropped 23% in the last 30 days and active addresses have dropped 3%.
At the same time, competitors are getting stronger. During the same time, transactions on Tron and BNB Chain went up by at least 34%, and active addresses on Solana went up by 15%. These other networks, which are sometimes criticized for being more centralized, now have cheaper costs and better user experiences, which is drawing people away from Ethereum.
Ethereum is facing more competition for institutional capital since the Solana ETF’s successful debut in the US. This is a worry for many people. Traders are worried that capital will move away from Ethereum investment products because ETFs for XRP, BNB, and Cardano could come to the market. This could hurt the positive trend that propelled ETH to $4,200 in August 2024.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Four Critical Factors Will Determine Recovery
Four important things need to happen in the next few weeks for Ethereum to get back to $4,000:
- More activity on the blockchain: Ethereum needs to stop the decline in transaction volumes and active addresses to justify higher prices. Better interaction between decentralized apps and wallets, as well as better bridge functionality, will be very important.
- Network Fees Going Up: To support staking returns and draw in long-term investors looking for income-generating assets, fees need to start going up again.
- Fusaka update Clarity: Investors want to know how the planned Fusaka update will help ETH holders in ways other than just making the network better. Clear reasons for tokenholders to buy could get people interested in buying again.
- Strategic Reserve Inflows: Companies who are building up ETH reserves are currently trading below their net asset value because prices are low, which means there is no reason to issue new shares to buy ETH. If the price goes back up above $3,600, this cycle of institutional stockpiling might resume again.
If these things happen, Ethereum might reach $4,000–$4,200 by the end of the year. But if the current support levels don’t hold, a bigger decline toward $3,100 might happen. This is where the last accumulation phase would probably happen before the next big bull cycle starts.
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